GS Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 30 trades in period
-11.35%
Year to Date Return
$18,386.17
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$20,741.08
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
36.7 neutral
20d Trend
-7.0%
5d Trend
-5.4%
EMA20 Dist
-4.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
59%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
44
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
18.7/35
Total Return
16.0/25
Win Rate
3.2/15
Profit Factor
2.2/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality
46.1/100
× Confidence 0.96
= 44.4
30-Day Momentum
0
-8.7%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-44 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,172
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
188 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$20,741.08
Current Value
$18,386.17
Period P&L
$-2,354.90
Max Drawdown
-15.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
10 /
20
Best Trade
+6.61%
Worst Trade
-4.41%
Avg Trade Return
-0.32%
Avg Hold Time
7.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,208,683.55
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,354.90
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,354.90
Gross Return
-11.35%
Net Return (after fees)
-11.35%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 GS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 188 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $20,741.08 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 11:35am ET | $875.33 | 23 | $20,132.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $933.23 | 23 | $21,464.29 | $21,973.98 |
+$1,331.70 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $946.74 | 23 | $21,775.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $918.08 | 23 | $21,115.84 | $21,314.80 |
$-659.18 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $926.00 | 23 | $21,298.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 1:00pm ET | $896.08 | 23 | $20,609.84 | $20,626.64 |
$-688.16 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 1:35pm ET | $893.69 | 23 | $20,554.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $938.61 | 23 | $21,588.03 | $21,659.80 |
+$1,033.16 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 12:45pm ET | $912.21 | 23 | $20,980.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 12:40pm ET | $884.25 | 23 | $20,337.75 | $21,016.72 |
$-643.08 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 2:55pm ET | $906.78 | 23 | $20,855.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 11:40am ET | $878.85 | 23 | $20,213.55 | $20,374.42 |
$-642.30 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 1:25pm ET | $865.47 | 23 | $19,905.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $836.25 | 23 | $19,233.75 | $19,702.36 |
$-672.06 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 12:50pm ET | $871.50 | 22 | $19,172.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 11:20am ET | $844.97 | 22 | $18,589.45 | $19,118.90 |
$-583.46 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.5h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $820.45 | 23 | $18,870.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $794.21 | 23 | $18,266.77 | $18,515.32 |
$-603.58 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 11:35am ET | $787.78 | 23 | $18,118.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $832.14 | 23 | $19,139.16 | $19,535.66 |
+$1,020.34 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $823.46 | 23 | $18,939.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:55am ET | $867.26 | 23 | $19,946.98 | $20,543.06 |
+$1,007.40 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 12:20pm ET | $856.79 | 23 | $19,706.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $905.24 | 23 | $20,820.52 | $21,657.41 |
+$1,114.35 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:35am ET | $897.85 | 24 | $21,548.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:55am ET | $868.87 | 24 | $20,852.88 | $20,961.89 |
$-695.52 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 10:40am ET | $907.77 | 23 | $20,878.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 10:30am ET | $956.00 | 23 | $21,988.00 | $22,071.18 |
+$1,109.29 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
28d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 10:45am ET | $963.71 | 22 | $21,201.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $926.96 | 22 | $20,393.12 | $21,262.68 |
$-808.50 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 11:00am ET | $976.56 | 21 | $20,507.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 11:25am ET | $1,025.67 | 21 | $21,539.07 | $22,293.99 |
+$1,031.31 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 2:00pm ET | $1,067.99 | 20 | $21,359.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 10:20am ET | $1,033.40 | 20 | $20,668.00 | $21,602.19 |
$-691.80 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,082.34 | 19 | $20,564.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:45pm ET | $1,049.40 | 19 | $19,938.60 | $20,976.33 |
$-625.86 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 1:20pm ET | $1,050.47 | 19 | $19,958.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $1,016.65 | 19 | $19,316.43 | $20,333.83 |
$-642.50 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:35am ET | $1,008.64 | 20 | $20,172.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 10:10am ET | $1,060.51 | 20 | $21,210.20 | $21,371.33 |
+$1,037.50 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 10:40am ET | $1,079.48 | 19 | $20,510.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,031.87 | 19 | $19,605.53 | $20,466.74 |
$-904.59 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 3:35pm ET | $1,022.61 | 20 | $20,452.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,084.97 | 20 | $21,699.40 | $21,713.84 |
+$1,247.10 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14.7d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 11:25am ET | $1,132.46 | 19 | $21,516.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,098.40 | 19 | $20,869.60 | $21,066.70 |
$-647.14 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.5h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $1,078.81 | 19 | $20,497.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 11:40am ET | $1,043.20 | 19 | $19,820.80 | $20,390.11 |
$-676.59 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 2:00pm ET | $1,038.18 | 19 | $19,725.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $1,006.63 | 19 | $19,125.97 | $19,790.66 |
$-599.45 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 11:40am ET | $1,006.71 | 19 | $19,127.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 10:40am ET | $1,058.52 | 19 | $20,111.79 | $20,775.05 |
+$984.39 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 2:55pm ET | $1,072.42 | 19 | $20,375.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $1,039.33 | 19 | $19,747.36 | $20,146.43 |
$-628.62 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 12:25pm ET | $1,033.45 | 19 | $19,635.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 2:45pm ET | $1,002.06 | 19 | $19,039.14 | $19,550.02 |
$-596.41 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 1:05pm ET | $1,034.90 | 18 | $18,628.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:50am ET | $1,002.45 | 18 | $18,044.15 | $18,966.05 |
$-583.97 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $973.56 | 19 | $18,497.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 3:05pm ET | $943.04 | 19 | $17,917.76 | $18,386.17 |
$-579.88 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$18,386.17
Net Profit/Loss:
+$8,386.17
Total Return:
+83.86%