Compendium › Marcus Reversal › HD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
HD
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 27 trades in period

-22.60%
Year to Date Return
$7,983.47
Current Value
30%
Win Rate
$10,314.16
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:49:04

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 94%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 5.1/100
× Confidence 0.94 = 4.8

30-Day Momentum

0
-9.8%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (94%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
14,950
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
188 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,314.16
Current Value
$7,983.47
Period P&L
$-2,330.70
Max Drawdown
-19.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.24

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
27
Winners / Losers
8 / 19
Best Trade
+5.63%
Worst Trade
-4.04%
Avg Trade Return
-0.92%
Avg Hold Time
8.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$478,114.76
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,330.70
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,330.70
Gross Return
-22.60%
Net Return (after fees)
-22.60%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 188 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 27 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,314.16 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 1:50pm ET $347.04 29 $10,064.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 9:55am ET $365.11 29 $10,588.05 $10,912.29 +$523.89
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
17.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 2:15pm ET $374.69 29 $10,865.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $381.28 29 $11,057.12 $11,103.54 +$191.25
(+1.8%) 		📅 Sim Ended
28.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET $387.42 28 $10,847.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:55am ET $375.37 28 $10,510.36 $10,766.14 $-337.40
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 1:00pm ET $387.52 27 $10,463.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 10:00am ET $374.10 27 $10,100.70 $10,403.80 $-362.34
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 11:45am ET $376.38 27 $10,162.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $362.99 27 $9,800.73 $10,042.27 $-361.53
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 9:35am ET $363.35 27 $9,810.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET $350.36 27 $9,459.63 $9,691.58 $-350.69
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 2:55pm ET $358.27 27 $9,673.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET $346.21 27 $9,347.67 $9,365.96 $-325.62
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 3:50pm ET $338.36 27 $9,135.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 10:25am ET $327.79 27 $8,850.33 $9,080.57 $-285.39
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 10:30am ET $325.53 27 $8,789.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 3:05pm ET $315.74 27 $8,524.98 $8,816.24 $-264.33
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.2d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 3:10pm ET $335.02 26 $8,710.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $352.00 26 $9,152.00 $9,257.59 +$441.35
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 11:45am ET $340.91 27 $9,204.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:50am ET $330.61 27 $8,926.34 $8,979.36 $-278.23
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:50am ET $320.92 27 $8,664.71 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:45am ET $310.71 27 $8,389.17 $8,703.82 $-275.54
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
13 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 10:40am ET $323.10 26 $8,400.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:45am ET $313.26 26 $8,144.76 $8,447.98 $-255.84
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
14 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 3:30pm ET $311.00 27 $8,397.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 11:20am ET $301.06 27 $8,128.62 $8,179.60 $-268.38
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held
15 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 2:15pm ET $303.38 26 $7,887.88 — — —
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 9:30am ET $291.12 26 $7,569.12 $7,860.84 $-318.76
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
16 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 9:30am ET $306.00 25 $7,650.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 10:25am ET $321.33 25 $8,033.37 $8,244.21 +$383.37
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
17 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 12:20pm ET $319.93 25 $7,998.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 10:30am ET $309.35 25 $7,733.75 $7,979.58 $-264.63
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $307.82 25 $7,695.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 9:55am ET $325.15 25 $8,128.75 $8,412.83 +$433.25
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8d held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 10:40am ET $326.61 25 $8,165.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:35am ET $344.48 25 $8,612.00 $8,859.71 +$446.88
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
13d held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 1:25pm ET $348.77 25 $8,719.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $337.23 25 $8,430.63 $8,571.08 $-288.63
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
11.8d held
21 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 2:20pm ET $338.27 25 $8,456.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:45am ET $327.22 25 $8,180.50 $8,294.95 $-276.13
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
11.8d held
22 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 10:40am ET $331.89 24 $7,965.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:55am ET $348.61 24 $8,366.52 $8,695.99 +$401.04
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
23 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 10:25am ET $338.92 25 $8,473.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 10:15am ET $356.48 25 $8,911.88 $9,134.86 +$438.87
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9d held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 10:15am ET $347.69 26 $9,039.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 9:40am ET $336.60 26 $8,751.60 $8,846.52 $-288.34
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
25 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:45am ET $333.88 26 $8,680.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:45am ET $322.82 26 $8,393.21 $8,558.98 $-287.54
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
15d held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:45am ET $319.32 26 $8,302.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $307.93 26 $8,006.31 $8,262.97 $-296.01
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:20pm ET $309.09 26 $8,036.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $298.34 26 $7,756.84 $7,983.47 $-279.50
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,983.47
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,016.53
Total Return: -20.17%
Back to Marcus Reversal