Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:44:35

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.3 oversold
20d Trend
-41.6%
5d Trend
-28.6%
EMA20 Dist
-26.6%
ATR%
7.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 5.1/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 5.1

30-Day Momentum

16
+3.1%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 20.3 Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,892
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$13,583.76
Current Value
$8,197.14
Period P&L
$-5,386.63
Max Drawdown
-45.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
69
Winners / Losers
23 / 46
Best Trade
+8.59%
Worst Trade
-13.53%
Avg Trade Return
-0.62%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,275,756.52
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-5,386.63
Net P&L (after fees)
$-5,386.63
Gross Return
-39.65%
Net Return (after fees)
-39.65%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HOOD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 69 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,583.76 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 31, 2025 3:50pm ET $112.94 120 $13,552.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:40am ET $119.63 120 $14,355.60 $14,447.75 +$802.80
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.7d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 10:00am ET $121.73 118 $14,363.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 2:55pm ET $117.99 118 $13,922.53 $14,006.72 $-441.03
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 3:25pm ET $115.45 121 $13,969.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 3:05pm ET $111.90 121 $13,539.96 $13,577.23 $-429.49
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 3:05pm ET $108.93 124 $13,507.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:05am ET $105.52 124 $13,083.86 $13,153.77 $-423.46
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET $105.94 124 $13,136.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET $102.42 124 $12,700.08 $12,717.29 $-436.48
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 11:20am ET $101.70 125 $12,712.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 3:25pm ET $98.43 125 $12,303.13 $12,307.92 $-409.38
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 3:25pm ET $88.73 138 $12,244.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 1:00pm ET $86.06 138 $11,876.28 $11,939.46 $-368.46
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 1:05pm ET $78.04 152 $11,862.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:05am ET $75.64 152 $11,496.52 $11,573.90 $-365.56
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 1:30pm ET $82.65 140 $11,571.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:15am ET $86.86 140 $12,161.10 $12,163.30 +$589.40
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 11:40am ET $86.13 141 $12,144.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET $76.80 141 $10,828.80 $10,847.77 $-1,315.53
(-10.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $74.34 145 $10,778.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 10:05am ET $78.10 145 $11,324.50 $11,393.33 +$545.56
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 11:45am ET $74.74 152 $11,360.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:45am ET $72.45 152 $11,012.40 $11,045.25 $-348.08
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 1:05pm ET $76.67 144 $11,040.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $73.49 144 $10,581.84 $10,586.96 $-458.29
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $74.19 142 $10,534.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 9:30am ET $79.73 142 $11,321.66 $11,373.64 +$786.68
(+7.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 10:40am ET $80.65 141 $11,371.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $77.99 141 $10,996.59 $10,998.58 $-375.06
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $75.87 144 $10,925.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET $80.25 144 $11,556.00 $11,629.30 +$630.72
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2026 11:45am ET $77.02 150 $11,553.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 10:45am ET $74.18 150 $11,126.99 $11,203.29 $-426.01
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 12:30pm ET $74.28 150 $11,142.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 10:00am ET $71.61 150 $10,741.50 $10,802.79 $-400.50
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $71.50 151 $10,796.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:40am ET $69.28 151 $10,461.28 $10,467.57 $-335.22
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 12:10pm ET $72.92 143 $10,427.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 10:55am ET $70.71 143 $10,111.53 $10,151.54 $-316.03
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 12:40pm ET $66.98 151 $10,113.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 1:20pm ET $64.89 151 $9,798.39 $9,836.22 $-315.32
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:10pm ET $70.04 140 $9,805.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $67.19 140 $9,407.16 $9,437.79 $-398.43
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 1:20pm ET $69.61 135 $9,397.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 10:00am ET $67.23 135 $9,076.50 $9,116.92 $-320.87
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET $73.48 124 $9,111.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET $69.95 124 $8,673.80 $8,679.20 $-437.72
(-4.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9h held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET $69.29 125 $8,661.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $75.24 125 $9,405.00 $9,422.95 +$743.75
(+8.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 10:00am ET $84.37 111 $9,365.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $90.10 111 $10,001.10 $10,058.98 +$636.03
(+6.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 10:55am ET $89.20 112 $9,990.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $86.38 112 $9,674.56 $9,743.14 $-315.84
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
28 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:50am ET $86.97 112 $9,740.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:10pm ET $83.89 112 $9,395.68 $9,398.18 $-344.96
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held
29 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 11:30am ET $83.43 112 $9,344.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $72.15 112 $8,080.54 $8,134.10 $-1,264.08
(-13.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
30 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 12:25pm ET $72.96 111 $8,099.11 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:35am ET $77.33 111 $8,583.63 $8,618.62 +$484.52
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
31 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 12:35pm ET $76.94 112 $8,617.28 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 9:55am ET $74.43 112 $8,336.72 $8,338.06 $-280.56
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
32 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:50am ET $78.74 105 $8,267.70 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 9:40am ET $76.13 105 $7,993.97 $8,064.33 $-273.73
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
33 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 9:50am ET $75.75 106 $8,029.28 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 12:00pm ET $79.54 106 $8,431.58 $8,466.63 +$402.30
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held
34 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 12:00pm ET $76.67 110 $8,433.70 — — —
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 10:10am ET $74.28 110 $8,170.80 $8,203.73 $-262.90
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
35 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 3:05pm ET $75.47 108 $8,150.76 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 11:25am ET $79.42 108 $8,576.82 $8,629.79 +$426.06
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held
36 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 1:50pm ET $92.52 93 $8,604.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET $86.07 93 $8,004.97 $8,030.40 $-599.39
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
37 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:35am ET $88.68 90 $7,980.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $85.11 90 $7,659.90 $7,709.55 $-320.85
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
38 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET $84.93 90 $7,643.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:10pm ET $82.22 90 $7,400.25 $7,466.55 $-243.00
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4h held
39 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 1:25pm ET $84.03 88 $7,394.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:00pm ET $81.26 88 $7,150.88 $7,222.80 $-243.75
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held
40 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 3:10pm ET $88.00 82 $7,216.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 3:15pm ET $92.62 82 $7,594.84 $7,601.63 +$378.83
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
41 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 12:45pm ET $99.35 76 $7,550.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 10:50am ET $96.21 76 $7,312.34 $7,363.37 $-238.26
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held
42 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 3:45pm ET $105.83 69 $7,302.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 9:50am ET $111.35 69 $7,683.15 $7,744.26 +$380.89
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
43 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 2:30pm ET $103.61 74 $7,667.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 9:45am ET $98.64 74 $7,298.99 $7,376.11 $-368.15
(-4.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held
44 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:45am ET $94.08 78 $7,338.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $99.22 78 $7,739.16 $7,777.04 +$400.93
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.3d held
45 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 12:30pm ET $100.82 77 $7,763.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 11:05am ET $107.29 77 $8,261.33 $8,275.06 +$498.02
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held
46 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 11:15am ET $113.98 72 $8,206.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 10:50am ET $109.75 72 $7,902.00 $7,970.50 $-304.56
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
47 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 1:10pm ET $116.49 68 $7,921.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:45am ET $111.60 68 $7,588.80 $7,637.98 $-332.52
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.6h held
48 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:45am ET $110.17 69 $7,601.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 1:35pm ET $115.89 69 $7,996.41 $8,033.00 +$395.02
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
49 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 1:35pm ET $107.39 74 $7,946.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $100.80 74 $7,459.20 $7,545.34 $-487.66
(-6.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.9h held
50 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $100.29 75 $7,521.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:35am ET $105.68 75 $7,926.37 $7,949.96 +$404.62
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
51 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 2:25pm ET $105.04 75 $7,878.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $101.77 75 $7,632.75 $7,704.71 $-245.25
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.1h held
52 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET $97.53 78 $7,607.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 10:30am ET $94.23 78 $7,349.94 $7,447.31 $-257.40
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held
53 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:40am ET $93.82 79 $7,411.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET $89.94 79 $7,105.65 $7,141.19 $-306.13
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9h held
54 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 10:25am ET $90.06 79 $7,114.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $87.31 79 $6,897.49 $6,923.94 $-217.25
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held
55 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $84.67 81 $6,858.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 10:00am ET $89.71 81 $7,266.51 $7,332.18 +$408.24
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
56 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 10:40am ET $91.22 80 $7,298.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $96.98 80 $7,758.68 $7,792.86 +$460.68
(+6.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
57 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 11:00am ET $98.32 79 $7,767.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET $94.96 79 $7,501.84 $7,527.42 $-265.44
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
58 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $92.85 81 $7,521.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 11:35am ET $97.94 81 $7,933.14 $7,939.49 +$412.07
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
59 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 12:10pm ET $94.48 84 $7,936.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET $101.13 84 $8,494.92 $8,498.09 +$558.60
(+7.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held
60 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 1:25pm ET $106.76 79 $8,434.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 3:50pm ET $103.46 79 $8,173.73 $8,237.78 $-260.31
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4h held
61 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $110.17 74 $8,152.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET $106.56 74 $7,885.07 $7,970.27 $-267.51
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
62 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 10:10am ET $101.51 78 $7,917.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 11:30am ET $106.60 78 $8,314.62 $8,367.11 +$396.84
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
63 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:50am ET $105.05 79 $8,298.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $113.58 79 $8,972.82 $9,040.98 +$673.87
(+8.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held
64 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:50pm ET $123.04 73 $8,981.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 2:50pm ET $119.14 73 $8,697.10 $8,756.52 $-284.46
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
65 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 3:00pm ET $116.12 75 $8,709.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $112.50 75 $8,437.50 $8,485.02 $-271.50
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held
66 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:35am ET $112.58 75 $8,443.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET $109.12 75 $8,184.00 $8,225.15 $-259.87
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
67 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:35am ET $108.76 75 $8,157.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 10:25am ET $105.48 75 $7,911.00 $7,979.15 $-246.00
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
50m held
68 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 11:05am ET $106.65 74 $7,892.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $113.57 74 $8,404.55 $8,491.23 +$512.08
(+6.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held
69 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 3:25pm ET $124.12 68 $8,440.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $119.79 68 $8,146.06 $8,197.14 $-294.09
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,197.14
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,802.86
Total Return: -18.03%
Back to Marcus Reversal