ISRG Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 30 trades in period
-29.63%
Year to Date Return
$9,477.34
Current Value
27%
Win Rate
$13,468.25
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality
4.4/100
× Confidence 0.97
= 4.3
30-Day Momentum
18
+5.0%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 27.9
Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+14 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
14,801
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
188 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$13,468.25
Current Value
$9,477.34
Period P&L
$-3,990.89
Max Drawdown
-35.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.31
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
8 /
22
Best Trade
+6.20%
Worst Trade
-6.62%
Avg Trade Return
-1.17%
Avg Hold Time
6.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$598,441.64
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,990.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,990.89
Gross Return
-29.63%
Net Return (after fees)
-29.63%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 188 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,468.25 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 9:35am ET | $575.61 | 23 | $13,239.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 11:00am ET | $557.55 | 23 | $12,823.65 | $13,207.65 |
$-415.38 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 12:50pm ET | $600.57 | 21 | $12,611.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $581.68 | 21 | $12,215.18 | $12,810.85 |
$-396.80 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:50am ET | $570.27 | 22 | $12,545.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $547.81 | 22 | $12,051.82 | $12,316.84 |
$-494.01 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 10:10am ET | $545.05 | 22 | $11,991.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $527.87 | 22 | $11,613.03 | $11,938.81 |
$-378.03 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 12:05pm ET | $521.44 | 22 | $11,471.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 11:55am ET | $505.35 | 22 | $11,117.70 | $11,584.88 |
$-353.93 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 12:10pm ET | $501.90 | 23 | $11,543.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $486.35 | 23 | $11,185.94 | $11,227.12 |
$-357.76 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:50pm ET | $479.42 | 23 | $11,026.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $492.74 | 23 | $11,333.02 | $11,533.36 |
+$306.25 (+2.8%) |
📅 Sim Ended
4.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 12:20pm ET | $490.45 | 23 | $11,280.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 12:10pm ET | $475.71 | 23 | $10,941.44 | $11,194.45 |
$-338.91 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 3:40pm ET | $470.82 | 23 | $10,828.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $456.60 | 23 | $10,501.80 | $10,867.39 |
$-327.06 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 10:45am ET | $450.62 | 24 | $10,814.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 12:00pm ET | $473.35 | 24 | $11,360.40 | $11,412.91 |
+$545.52 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 12:35pm ET | $466.06 | 24 | $11,185.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 3:55pm ET | $452.03 | 24 | $10,848.72 | $11,076.19 |
$-336.72 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 10:40am ET | $480.18 | 23 | $11,044.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $464.54 | 23 | $10,684.31 | $10,716.36 |
$-359.83 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $457.68 | 23 | $10,526.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:40am ET | $442.69 | 23 | $10,181.87 | $10,371.59 |
$-344.77 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 2:05pm ET | $431.40 | 24 | $10,353.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $416.80 | 24 | $10,003.08 | $10,021.07 |
$-350.52 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 2:50pm ET | $421.17 | 23 | $9,686.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $406.57 | 23 | $9,351.00 | $9,685.15 |
$-335.92 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 11:10am ET | $416.29 | 23 | $9,574.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $403.65 | 23 | $9,283.95 | $9,394.43 |
$-290.72 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 12:45pm ET | $414.63 | 22 | $9,121.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:10pm ET | $401.83 | 22 | $8,840.26 | $9,112.94 |
$-281.49 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $400.80 | 22 | $8,817.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 11:50am ET | $421.04 | 22 | $9,262.77 | $9,558.22 |
+$445.28 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 3:30pm ET | $435.98 | 21 | $9,155.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $421.90 | 21 | $8,859.90 | $9,262.54 |
$-295.68 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $410.36 | 22 | $9,027.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $396.31 | 22 | $8,718.82 | $8,953.51 |
$-309.03 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 1:00pm ET | $390.91 | 22 | $8,600.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $365.02 | 22 | $8,030.55 | $8,384.04 |
$-569.47 (-6.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 10:45am ET | $344.81 | 24 | $8,275.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $333.76 | 24 | $8,010.12 | $8,118.72 |
$-265.32 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 12:35pm ET | $339.89 | 23 | $7,817.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 12:10pm ET | $356.91 | 23 | $8,208.93 | $8,510.18 |
+$391.46 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $355.70 | 23 | $8,181.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $374.46 | 23 | $8,612.64 | $8,941.72 |
+$431.54 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 10:10am ET | $367.31 | 24 | $8,815.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 10:50am ET | $386.11 | 24 | $9,266.52 | $9,392.80 |
+$451.08 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 1:35pm ET | $399.72 | 23 | $9,193.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 1:00pm ET | $383.58 | 23 | $8,822.34 | $9,021.58 |
$-371.22 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 2:05pm ET | $379.48 | 23 | $8,727.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 10:35am ET | $367.70 | 23 | $8,457.10 | $8,750.70 |
$-270.88 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 10:35am ET | $367.51 | 23 | $8,452.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 10:25am ET | $355.95 | 23 | $8,186.74 | $8,484.70 |
$-266.00 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 11:00am ET | $352.21 | 24 | $8,453.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $374.04 | 24 | $8,976.96 | $9,008.62 |
+$523.92 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $372.03 | 24 | $8,928.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $391.56 | 24 | $9,397.44 | $9,477.34 |
+$468.72 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,477.34
Net Profit/Loss:
$-522.66
Total Return:
-5.23%