Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:36:46

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
88.4 overbought
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+5.8%
EMA20 Dist
+6.5%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
98%
Bounce Ratio
40.5×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

44
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
17.1/35
Total Return
15.2/25
Win Rate
5.1/15
Profit Factor
5.1/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 49.2/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 43.5

30-Day Momentum

15
+3.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 23.0 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-28 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,443
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
144 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)

Market Closed (7 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$13,230.63
Current Value
$16,726.10
Period P&L
$3,495.50
Max Drawdown
-13.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.38

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
9 / 7
Best Trade
+5.42%
Worst Trade
-3.25%
Avg Trade Return
+1.45%
Avg Hold Time
11.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$477,400.22
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,495.50
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,495.50
Gross Return
+26.42%
Net Return (after fees)
+26.42%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 JNJ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 144 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,230.63 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 12:15pm ET $210.43 63 $13,257.09
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:40am ET $203.90 63 $12,845.70 $13,036.57 $-411.39
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 11:55am ET $205.29 63 $12,933.26
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 9:50am ET $215.65 63 $13,585.95 $13,689.26 +$652.69
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 10:20am ET $216.17 63 $13,618.71
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET $227.24 63 $14,315.81 $14,386.35 +$697.10
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
13d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET $227.69 63 $14,344.47
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:55am ET $239.13 63 $15,065.19 $15,107.07 +$720.72
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:25am ET $238.39 63 $15,018.57
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $238.63 63 $15,033.69 $15,122.19 +$15.12
(+0.1%)
📅 Sim Ended
3.2d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 11:15am ET $242.40 62 $15,028.80
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 12:15pm ET $237.93 62 $14,751.66 $14,845.05 $-277.14
(-1.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 2:50pm ET $235.71 62 $14,614.02
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $234.53 62 $14,540.86 $14,771.89 $-73.16
(-0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $229.29 64 $14,674.56
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 10:05am ET $222.26 64 $14,224.65 $14,321.98 $-449.91
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
16d held
9 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 11:20am ET $221.29 64 $14,162.56
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:30am ET $233.27 64 $14,929.60 $15,089.02 +$767.04
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
13.9d held
10 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $232.97 64 $14,910.08
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 1:05pm ET $225.92 64 $14,458.90 $14,637.84 $-451.18
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 1:15pm ET $222.09 65 $14,435.85
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 11:25am ET $233.30 65 $15,164.82 $15,366.81 +$728.97
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 12:30pm ET $231.57 66 $15,283.62
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:35am ET $243.25 66 $16,054.50 $16,137.69 +$770.88
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
16.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 10:00am ET $255.31 63 $16,084.54
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:50am ET $268.27 63 $16,900.70 $16,953.85 +$816.16
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 10:30am ET $266.14 63 $16,766.82
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:35am ET $258.08 63 $16,259.04 $16,446.07 $-507.78
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 1:55pm ET $257.62 63 $16,230.06
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET $249.25 63 $15,702.75 $15,918.76 $-527.31
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 11:50am ET $249.18 63 $15,698.03
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 9:40am ET $261.99 63 $16,505.37 $16,726.10 +$807.34
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,726.10
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,726.10
Total Return: +67.26%
Back to Marcus Reversal