Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-24 20:30:47

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
62.3 neutral
20d Trend
+5.9%
5d Trend
+0.9%
EMA20 Dist
+1.9%
ATR%
1.9%
Range Pos
83%
Bounce Ratio
2.8×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.0/35
Total Return
9.7/25
Win Rate
1.2/15
Profit Factor
0.8/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 20.6/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 18.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,593
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-06-24
Trading Days
121 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$12,992.98
Current Value
$11,365.03
Period P&L
$-1,627.96
Max Drawdown
-12.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.34

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
3 / 9
Best Trade
+6.56%
Worst Trade
-3.29%
Avg Trade Return
-1.17%
Avg Hold Time
13.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$298,752.00
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,627.96
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,627.96
Gross Return
-12.53%
Net Return (after fees)
-12.53%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MDT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 121 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,992.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 9:30am ET $97.88 134 $13,115.59
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET $98.52 134 $13,201.68 $13,260.98 +$86.09
(+0.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 9:30am ET $98.61 134 $13,213.07
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:35am ET $103.98 134 $13,933.32 $13,981.23 +$720.25
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
18d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:40am ET $103.11 135 $13,919.85
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $101.54 135 $13,708.57 $13,769.96 $-211.28
(-1.5%)
📅 Sim Ended
5.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $95.91 143 $13,715.13
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 10:25am ET $92.82 143 $13,273.97 $13,328.80 $-441.16
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
16d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 10:25am ET $90.17 147 $13,254.99
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 10:25am ET $87.43 147 $12,852.21 $12,926.02 $-402.78
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 12:05pm ET $87.87 147 $12,916.89
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 10:55am ET $84.97 147 $12,491.32 $12,500.45 $-425.57
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
15d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 12:25pm ET $86.03 145 $12,474.35
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 12:05pm ET $83.37 145 $12,088.65 $12,114.75 $-385.70
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 12:05pm ET $83.12 145 $12,052.40
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:40am ET $80.55 145 $11,679.75 $11,742.10 $-372.65
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
9 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:40am ET $80.06 146 $11,688.76
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:50am ET $77.45 146 $11,307.70 $11,361.04 $-381.06
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
10 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 10:00am ET $77.51 146 $11,316.46
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 11:05am ET $75.06 146 $10,958.77 $11,003.35 $-357.69
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
11 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 9:35am ET $75.50 145 $10,947.50
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $80.45 145 $11,665.25 $11,721.10 +$717.75
(+6.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
22d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 1:25pm ET $81.58 143 $11,665.94
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 1:45pm ET $79.09 143 $11,309.87 $11,365.03 $-356.07
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,365.03
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,365.03
Total Return: +13.65%
Back to Marcus Reversal