Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:38:12

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

20
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.4/35
Total Return
11.0/25
Win Rate
1.2/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 20.4/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 20.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
14,845
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
187 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$12,089.93
Current Value
$12,007.42
Period P&L
$-82.51
Max Drawdown
-29.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.02

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
12 / 17
Best Trade
+7.57%
Worst Trade
-4.68%
Avg Trade Return
+0.07%
Avg Hold Time
7.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$705,465.84
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-82.51
Net P&L (after fees)
$-82.51
Gross Return
-0.68%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.68%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 187 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 29 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,089.93 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 2:00pm ET $176.83 68 $12,024.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:40am ET $185.77 68 $12,632.36 $12,646.17 +$607.92
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
16.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 9:40am ET $186.33 67 $12,484.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET $180.72 67 $12,108.24 $12,270.30 $-375.87
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 1:40pm ET $191.39 64 $12,248.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $184.51 64 $11,808.65 $11,829.99 $-440.31
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET $182.96 64 $11,709.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $177.10 64 $11,334.40 $11,454.95 $-375.04
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
14.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 2:45pm ET $180.18 63 $11,351.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $181.98 63 $11,464.74 $11,568.35 +$113.40
(+1.0%)
📅 Sim Ended
3.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 12:40pm ET $171.10 67 $11,463.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 9:30am ET $165.02 67 $11,056.34 $11,160.99 $-407.36
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 12:00pm ET $175.48 63 $11,055.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 9:40am ET $169.77 63 $10,695.82 $10,801.57 $-359.42
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 1:25pm ET $167.75 64 $10,736.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $162.52 64 $10,401.28 $10,466.85 $-334.72
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.1h held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 12:50pm ET $167.87 62 $10,407.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 12:30pm ET $162.83 62 $10,095.37 $10,154.28 $-312.57
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET $157.20 64 $10,060.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $165.34 64 $10,581.76 $10,675.24 +$520.96
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
14d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $162.63 65 $10,570.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET $157.72 65 $10,251.80 $10,356.09 $-319.15
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 10:40am ET $164.50 62 $10,199.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $176.96 62 $10,971.52 $11,128.61 +$772.52
(+7.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET $176.74 62 $10,957.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $188.49 62 $11,686.38 $11,857.11 +$728.50
(+6.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 10:05am ET $189.14 62 $11,726.68 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $192.95 62 $11,962.59 $12,093.02 +$235.91
(+2.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
32d held
15 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:40am ET $190.30 63 $11,989.21 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:55am ET $200.04 63 $12,602.52 $12,706.33 +$613.31
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
16 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 3:30pm ET $201.47 63 $12,692.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 2:55pm ET $211.63 63 $13,333.00 $13,346.72 +$640.39
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
10d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $213.06 62 $13,209.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:40pm ET $206.16 62 $12,781.92 $12,918.92 $-427.80
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 1:45pm ET $206.93 62 $12,829.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $219.23 62 $13,591.95 $13,681.21 +$762.29
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 12:35pm ET $226.03 60 $13,561.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET $215.45 60 $12,926.70 $13,046.11 $-635.10
(-4.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 3:00pm ET $213.32 61 $13,012.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 10:35am ET $224.18 61 $13,674.98 $13,708.57 +$662.46
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
9.8d held
21 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:45am ET $220.02 62 $13,641.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 10:15am ET $231.74 62 $14,367.88 $14,435.21 +$726.64
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
22 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 11:35am ET $227.25 63 $14,316.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:55am ET $218.34 63 $13,755.11 $13,873.57 $-561.64
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held
23 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 1:20pm ET $217.10 63 $13,677.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 3:25pm ET $210.40 63 $13,255.20 $13,451.47 $-422.10
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
24 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 1:20pm ET $218.45 61 $13,325.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 10:40am ET $211.34 61 $12,891.74 $13,017.76 $-433.71
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
25 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:40am ET $213.79 60 $12,827.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 9:55am ET $206.60 60 $12,396.00 $12,586.36 $-431.40
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
26 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 2:00pm ET $209.74 60 $12,584.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 9:45am ET $220.35 60 $13,221.00 $13,222.96 +$636.60
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
13.8d held
27 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 11:55am ET $216.62 61 $13,213.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 1:45pm ET $210.06 61 $12,813.66 $12,823.10 $-399.86
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
28 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 12:30pm ET $214.65 59 $12,664.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 1:15pm ET $207.50 59 $12,242.50 $12,401.25 $-421.85
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21d held
29 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:05pm ET $206.88 59 $12,205.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 10:15am ET $200.21 59 $11,812.10 $12,007.42 $-393.83
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,007.42
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,007.42
Total Return: +20.07%
Back to Marcus Reversal