NIO Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 54 trades in period
-16.39%
Year to Date Return
$4,677.43
Current Value
35%
Win Rate
$5,594.36
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality
3.9/100
× Confidence 0.96
= 3.8
30-Day Momentum
0
-9.5%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,873
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$5,594.36
Current Value
$4,677.43
Period P&L
$-916.96
Max Drawdown
-51.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
54
Winners / Losers
19 /
35
Best Trade
+9.30%
Worst Trade
-5.72%
Avg Trade Return
-0.23%
Avg Hold Time
2.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$675,804.87
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-916.96
Net P&L (after fees)
$-916.96
Gross Return
-16.39%
Net Return (after fees)
-16.39%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 54 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $5,594.36 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 12:40pm ET | $5.15 | 1,087 | $5,592.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.97 | 1,087 | $5,396.96 | $5,398.74 |
$-195.66 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $4.90 | 1,101 | $5,394.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 3:20pm ET | $4.75 | 1,101 | $5,229.75 | $5,233.59 |
$-165.15 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.6h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $4.78 | 1,094 | $5,229.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $4.63 | 1,094 | $5,059.75 | $5,064.02 |
$-169.57 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 12:55pm ET | $4.87 | 1,040 | $5,059.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $4.71 | 1,040 | $4,898.40 | $4,902.82 |
$-161.20 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:05am ET | $4.63 | 1,060 | $4,902.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:50am ET | $4.86 | 1,060 | $5,151.49 | $5,151.82 |
+$248.99 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $4.66 | 1,105 | $5,149.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.94 | 1,105 | $5,454.28 | $5,456.80 |
+$304.98 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:40am ET | $4.81 | 1,135 | $5,453.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.53 | 1,135 | $5,141.55 | $5,144.67 |
$-312.12 (-5.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:00pm ET | $4.53 | 1,136 | $5,140.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.76 | 1,136 | $5,413.04 | $5,417.31 |
+$272.64 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.76 | 1,138 | $5,416.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $5.00 | 1,138 | $5,689.54 | $5,690.32 |
+$273.01 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:40am ET | $4.93 | 1,155 | $5,688.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.22 | 1,155 | $6,029.10 | $6,031.04 |
+$340.72 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:30am ET | $5.20 | 1,158 | $6,027.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 12:45pm ET | $5.05 | 1,158 | $5,846.16 | $5,849.81 |
$-181.23 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 1:05pm ET | $4.91 | 1,190 | $5,848.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.76 | 1,190 | $5,664.40 | $5,665.36 |
$-184.45 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.51 | 1,254 | $5,661.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $4.74 | 1,254 | $5,950.23 | $5,953.78 |
+$288.42 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $4.74 | 1,256 | $5,953.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.18 | 1,256 | $6,506.96 | $6,507.42 |
+$553.64 (+9.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 10:55am ET | $5.61 | 1,160 | $6,505.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $5.89 | 1,160 | $6,834.02 | $6,835.47 |
+$328.05 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 11:55am ET | $6.11 | 1,119 | $6,831.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.90 | 1,119 | $6,602.10 | $6,606.08 |
$-229.39 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.73 | 1,152 | $6,601.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $5.55 | 1,152 | $6,391.41 | $6,396.41 |
$-209.66 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 12:10pm ET | $5.82 | 1,098 | $6,391.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:10pm ET | $5.64 | 1,098 | $6,192.72 | $6,197.23 |
$-199.18 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 1:10pm ET | $5.41 | 1,145 | $6,196.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:55am ET | $5.71 | 1,145 | $6,537.95 | $6,539.13 |
+$341.90 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:35am ET | $6.11 | 1,071 | $6,538.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.42 | 1,071 | $6,874.00 | $6,874.67 |
+$335.54 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.13 | 1,121 | $6,871.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 11:05am ET | $6.45 | 1,121 | $7,224.85 | $7,227.79 |
+$353.12 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:05am ET | $6.12 | 1,180 | $7,224.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $6.52 | 1,180 | $7,693.60 | $7,697.19 |
+$469.40 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:55am ET | $6.47 | 1,190 | $7,693.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 2:50pm ET | $6.79 | 1,190 | $8,078.31 | $8,082.15 |
+$384.96 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.74 | 1,198 | $8,075.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $6.53 | 1,198 | $7,824.62 | $7,831.05 |
$-251.10 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 12:25pm ET | $6.53 | 1,198 | $7,828.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $6.32 | 1,198 | $7,571.36 | $7,573.48 |
$-257.57 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 12:50pm ET | $6.20 | 1,220 | $7,570.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.60 | 1,220 | $8,052.00 | $8,055.38 |
+$481.90 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.26 | 1,286 | $8,049.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $6.01 | 1,286 | $7,735.29 | $7,740.70 |
$-314.68 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:40am ET | $6.04 | 1,282 | $7,739.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.71 | 1,282 | $7,323.43 | $7,324.69 |
$-416.01 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 12:00pm ET | $5.93 | 1,236 | $7,323.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.32 | 1,236 | $7,811.40 | $7,812.79 |
+$488.10 (+6.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $6.32 | 1,235 | $7,811.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.12 | 1,235 | $7,558.20 | $7,559.62 |
$-253.17 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $5.95 | 1,270 | $7,556.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.72 | 1,270 | $7,264.40 | $7,267.52 |
$-292.10 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.64 | 1,288 | $7,264.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 10:25am ET | $5.43 | 1,288 | $6,993.97 | $6,997.17 |
$-270.35 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 10:25am ET | $5.22 | 1,341 | $6,993.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $5.48 | 1,341 | $7,348.68 | $7,352.53 |
+$355.36 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 11:40am ET | $5.58 | 1,317 | $7,348.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.38 | 1,317 | $7,085.46 | $7,089.26 |
$-263.27 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 11:00am ET | $5.91 | 1,198 | $7,086.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 12:50pm ET | $5.73 | 1,198 | $6,866.22 | $6,869.31 |
$-219.95 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.58 | 1,230 | $6,865.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 11:45am ET | $5.41 | 1,230 | $6,654.30 | $6,657.87 |
$-211.44 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 11:45am ET | $5.50 | 1,210 | $6,655.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $5.32 | 1,210 | $6,437.32 | $6,440.19 |
$-217.68 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 3:20pm ET | $5.19 | 1,240 | $6,435.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.03 | 1,240 | $6,237.20 | $6,241.79 |
$-198.40 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 11:20am ET | $5.09 | 1,226 | $6,240.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.88 | 1,226 | $5,982.88 | $5,984.33 |
$-257.46 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 12:40pm ET | $5.01 | 1,193 | $5,982.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.84 | 1,193 | $5,768.16 | $5,769.59 |
$-214.74 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 12:45pm ET | $4.78 | 1,207 | $5,769.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 10:10am ET | $5.03 | 1,207 | $6,065.18 | $6,065.30 |
+$295.71 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 12:00pm ET | $4.99 | 1,215 | $6,062.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.82 | 1,215 | $5,862.37 | $5,864.83 |
$-200.47 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 12:55pm ET | $5.01 | 1,170 | $5,862.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:50am ET | $4.86 | 1,170 | $5,686.20 | $5,688.28 |
$-176.55 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $4.78 | 1,190 | $5,686.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.16 | 1,190 | $6,134.45 | $6,136.32 |
+$448.04 (+7.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 11:25am ET | $5.11 | 1,200 | $6,131.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.88 | 1,200 | $5,850.00 | $5,854.44 |
$-281.88 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $4.87 | 1,202 | $5,853.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $4.70 | 1,202 | $5,647.24 | $5,647.94 |
$-206.50 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 11:10am ET | $4.63 | 1,219 | $5,643.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 3:15pm ET | $4.49 | 1,219 | $5,468.92 | $5,472.89 |
$-175.05 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 3:05pm ET | $4.67 | 1,171 | $5,468.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $4.91 | 1,171 | $5,749.49 | $5,753.81 |
+$280.92 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.6h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 9:40am ET | $4.71 | 1,221 | $5,750.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $4.57 | 1,221 | $5,574.84 | $5,577.74 |
$-176.07 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $4.72 | 1,181 | $5,574.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.51 | 1,181 | $5,332.21 | $5,335.64 |
$-242.10 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 10:05am ET | $4.56 | 1,170 | $5,335.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 11:35am ET | $4.41 | 1,170 | $5,165.55 | $5,165.99 |
$-169.65 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.1d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 3:10pm ET | $4.44 | 1,163 | $5,163.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 2:30pm ET | $4.30 | 1,163 | $5,006.71 | $5,008.98 |
$-157.01 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 2:30pm ET | $4.03 | 1,244 | $5,007.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $3.90 | 1,244 | $4,849.73 | $4,851.61 |
$-157.37 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $3.74 | 1,295 | $4,849.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $3.61 | 1,295 | $4,675.60 | $4,677.43 |
$-174.18 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$4,677.43
Net Profit/Loss:
$-5,322.57
Total Return:
-53.23%