NVDA Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 40 trades in period
+14.96%
Year to Date Return
$18,637.06
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$16,211.12
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
33
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
7.4/35
Total Return
16.4/25
Win Rate
1.6/15
Profit Factor
1.6/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality
33.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 33.0
30-Day Momentum
18
+3.8%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 24.6
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,124
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$16,211.12
Current Value
$18,637.06
Period P&L
$2,425.85
Max Drawdown
-43.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
17 /
23
Best Trade
+7.28%
Worst Trade
-4.53%
Avg Trade Return
+0.38%
Avg Hold Time
4.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,492,130.94
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,425.85
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,425.85
Gross Return
+14.96%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.96%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $16,211.12 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 11:55am ET | $190.95 | 86 | $16,421.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $185.05 | 86 | $15,914.30 | $16,085.65 |
$-507.07 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 12:15pm ET | $184.78 | 87 | $16,075.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $179.10 | 87 | $15,581.27 | $15,591.06 |
$-494.59 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 12:35pm ET | $184.68 | 84 | $15,513.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:45am ET | $194.37 | 84 | $16,326.66 | $16,404.59 |
+$813.53 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:45pm ET | $188.43 | 87 | $16,393.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $181.83 | 87 | $15,819.21 | $15,830.39 |
$-574.20 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 11:00am ET | $174.64 | 90 | $15,717.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $183.46 | 90 | $16,511.85 | $16,624.64 |
+$794.25 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:20pm ET | $191.17 | 86 | $16,440.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $190.19 | 86 | $16,356.34 | $16,540.36 |
$-84.28 (-0.5%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.6h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 3:30pm ET | $185.39 | 89 | $16,499.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:50am ET | $194.82 | 89 | $17,338.98 | $17,379.63 |
+$839.27 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $189.52 | 91 | $17,246.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $181.11 | 91 | $16,481.01 | $16,614.34 |
$-765.29 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $174.89 | 94 | $16,439.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 1:45pm ET | $183.87 | 94 | $17,283.31 | $17,457.99 |
+$843.65 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 12:55pm ET | $180.92 | 96 | $17,368.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:55am ET | $175.13 | 96 | $16,812.96 | $16,902.63 |
$-555.36 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $175.51 | 96 | $16,849.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $169.68 | 96 | $16,289.76 | $16,342.95 |
$-559.68 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:50pm ET | $166.80 | 97 | $16,179.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $175.74 | 97 | $17,046.78 | $17,210.13 |
+$867.18 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $172.08 | 100 | $17,208.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.60 | 100 | $18,460.00 | $18,462.12 |
+$1,251.99 (+7.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $188.51 | 97 | $18,284.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $198.07 | 97 | $19,212.31 | $19,389.45 |
+$927.33 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $200.12 | 96 | $19,211.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 12:35pm ET | $210.40 | 96 | $20,197.92 | $20,375.86 |
+$986.41 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $209.21 | 97 | $20,293.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 10:05am ET | $202.87 | 97 | $19,678.39 | $19,760.88 |
$-614.98 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:25pm ET | $199.21 | 99 | $19,722.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $210.18 | 99 | $20,807.33 | $20,845.92 |
+$1,085.04 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 10:55am ET | $215.79 | 96 | $20,716.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $227.04 | 96 | $21,795.84 | $21,925.52 |
+$1,079.60 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 1:20pm ET | $233.16 | 94 | $21,917.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $225.62 | 94 | $21,208.28 | $21,216.77 |
$-708.75 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 10:40am ET | $221.23 | 95 | $21,016.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 11:10am ET | $213.94 | 95 | $20,324.30 | $20,524.22 |
$-692.55 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 3:35pm ET | $212.19 | 96 | $20,370.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 1:45pm ET | $223.11 | 96 | $21,418.56 | $21,572.54 |
+$1,048.32 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 1:45pm ET | $222.95 | 96 | $21,403.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $216.18 | 96 | $20,753.28 | $20,922.63 |
$-649.91 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $212.40 | 98 | $20,815.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 2:30pm ET | $205.89 | 98 | $20,177.26 | $20,284.69 |
$-637.94 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:15pm ET | $207.84 | 97 | $20,160.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $200.29 | 97 | $19,428.13 | $19,552.34 |
$-732.35 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 1:45pm ET | $201.88 | 96 | $19,380.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 11:50am ET | $212.43 | 96 | $20,393.28 | $20,565.14 |
+$1,012.80 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 3:15pm ET | $208.47 | 98 | $20,430.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $202.00 | 98 | $19,796.00 | $19,931.08 |
$-634.06 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 12:40pm ET | $199.67 | 99 | $19,767.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $193.13 | 99 | $19,120.36 | $19,284.11 |
$-646.97 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 2:40pm ET | $193.97 | 99 | $19,203.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 3:00pm ET | $204.25 | 99 | $20,220.75 | $20,301.83 |
+$1,017.72 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 2:50pm ET | $209.93 | 96 | $20,152.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 2:30pm ET | $203.44 | 96 | $19,530.24 | $19,679.27 |
$-622.56 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 11:25am ET | $208.90 | 94 | $19,636.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $199.43 | 94 | $18,746.42 | $18,789.09 |
$-890.18 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $205.26 | 91 | $18,678.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $198.98 | 91 | $18,107.18 | $18,217.61 |
$-571.48 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 10:30am ET | $194.22 | 93 | $18,062.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 10:10am ET | $204.24 | 93 | $18,994.32 | $19,149.47 |
+$931.86 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 11:15am ET | $219.46 | 87 | $19,092.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $212.22 | 87 | $18,463.14 | $18,520.02 |
$-629.45 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 10:55am ET | $211.30 | 87 | $18,383.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $222.06 | 87 | $19,319.22 | $19,455.71 |
+$935.69 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET | $224.19 | 86 | $19,280.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 2:55pm ET | $216.93 | 86 | $18,656.41 | $18,831.78 |
$-623.93 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 2:55pm ET | $218.32 | 86 | $18,775.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 1:45pm ET | $229.93 | 86 | $19,773.97 | $19,829.80 |
+$998.02 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 1:55pm ET | $230.15 | 86 | $19,793.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $220.55 | 86 | $18,967.30 | $19,003.77 |
$-826.03 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 11:00am ET | $219.42 | 86 | $18,870.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $211.20 | 86 | $18,163.20 | $18,296.85 |
$-706.92 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 10:50am ET | $212.22 | 86 | $18,250.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $222.98 | 86 | $19,176.28 | $19,222.21 |
+$925.36 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 2:15pm ET | $229.16 | 83 | $19,020.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $222.12 | 83 | $18,435.55 | $18,637.06 |
$-585.15 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$18,637.06
Net Profit/Loss:
+$8,637.06
Total Return:
+86.37%