Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:36:12

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
15.8 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-19.1%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.9%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 5.5/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 5.4

30-Day Momentum

29
+8.2%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 37.0 Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+23 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,075
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$15,468.13
Current Value
$9,136.16
Period P&L
$-6,331.98
Max Drawdown
-51.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
68
Winners / Losers
22 / 46
Best Trade
+11.60%
Worst Trade
-12.17%
Avg Trade Return
-0.69%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,511,984.78
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-6,331.98
Net P&L (after fees)
$-6,331.98
Gross Return
-40.94%
Net Return (after fees)
-40.94%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ORCL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 68 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $15,468.13 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 9:30am ET $195.85 79 $15,472.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET $188.32 79 $14,877.28 $15,070.77 $-594.87
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
16d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 9:35am ET $197.44 76 $15,005.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 1:10pm ET $191.51 76 $14,554.59 $14,619.91 $-450.85
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 2:15pm ET $191.69 76 $14,568.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $185.35 76 $14,086.60 $14,138.07 $-481.84
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET $176.73 79 $13,961.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 12:05pm ET $171.33 79 $13,535.07 $13,711.47 $-426.60
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 2:30pm ET $178.57 76 $13,571.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET $173.12 76 $13,156.74 $13,296.61 $-414.87
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19h held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 1:40pm ET $183.67 72 $13,224.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET $177.16 72 $12,755.52 $12,827.89 $-468.72
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 11:00am ET $176.15 72 $12,682.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET $167.46 72 $12,056.76 $12,201.85 $-626.04
(-4.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.5h held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 11:45am ET $166.32 73 $12,141.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 3:50pm ET $160.27 73 $11,700.07 $11,760.55 $-441.29
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET $148.88 78 $11,612.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 9:45am ET $143.90 78 $11,224.20 $11,372.11 $-388.44
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 2:10pm ET $140.65 80 $11,252.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $152.07 80 $12,165.26 $12,285.38 +$913.26
(+8.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 1:25pm ET $161.58 76 $12,280.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 10:05am ET $156.07 76 $11,861.32 $11,866.62 $-418.76
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $157.90 75 $11,842.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 12:55pm ET $153.08 75 $11,481.19 $11,505.31 $-361.31
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4h held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 1:45pm ET $155.97 73 $11,385.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 11:25am ET $150.55 73 $10,990.51 $11,110.02 $-395.29
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 11:25am ET $139.32 79 $11,006.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 1:40pm ET $146.67 79 $11,586.93 $11,690.28 +$580.26
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 3:20pm ET $148.87 78 $11,611.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET $144.22 78 $11,249.16 $11,327.58 $-362.70
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $145.08 78 $11,316.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 10:25am ET $152.38 78 $11,885.64 $11,896.98 +$569.40
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 11:10am ET $153.71 77 $11,835.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET $148.40 77 $11,426.79 $11,488.49 $-408.49
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 10:10am ET $148.74 77 $11,452.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET $166.00 77 $12,782.00 $12,817.52 +$1,329.03
(+11.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 10:40am ET $162.60 78 $12,682.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 10:35am ET $157.71 78 $12,301.38 $12,436.27 $-381.25
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 12:30pm ET $155.75 79 $12,304.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $150.46 79 $11,886.34 $12,018.36 $-417.91
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET $151.41 79 $11,961.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET $146.34 79 $11,560.61 $11,617.62 $-400.74
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
22 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 11:20am ET $144.37 80 $11,549.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET $139.55 80 $11,164.40 $11,232.42 $-385.20
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held
23 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 12:50pm ET $139.13 80 $11,130.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 1:35pm ET $146.12 80 $11,689.20 $11,791.62 +$559.20
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:10pm ET $145.45 81 $11,781.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET $140.85 81 $11,408.85 $11,419.02 $-372.60
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.5h held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 10:35am ET $144.47 79 $11,413.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET $139.66 79 $11,033.14 $11,039.03 $-379.99
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 10:10am ET $135.49 81 $10,974.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:45am ET $142.29 81 $11,525.49 $11,589.83 +$550.80
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 10:45am ET $163.84 70 $11,468.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 11:00am ET $172.32 70 $12,062.05 $12,183.08 +$593.25
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
28 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 10:50am ET $179.60 67 $12,033.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 2:20pm ET $174.17 67 $11,669.42 $11,818.96 $-364.12
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5h held
29 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 1:15pm ET $187.21 63 $11,794.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $179.80 63 $11,327.40 $11,352.13 $-466.83
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held
30 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 10:35am ET $171.53 66 $11,320.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $162.43 66 $10,720.38 $10,751.53 $-600.60
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
31 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $163.56 65 $10,631.40 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 11:25am ET $171.91 65 $11,174.15 $11,294.28 +$542.75
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
32 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $180.28 62 $11,177.36 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 10:35am ET $189.38 62 $11,741.56 $11,858.48 +$564.20
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
33 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 11:45am ET $197.14 60 $11,828.40 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 9:55am ET $190.85 60 $11,451.30 $11,481.38 $-377.10
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held
34 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 11:15am ET $192.18 59 $11,338.91 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 9:55am ET $186.36 59 $10,995.24 $11,137.71 $-343.67
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held
35 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 11:40am ET $188.65 59 $11,130.64 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 11:10am ET $198.31 59 $11,700.41 $11,707.47 +$569.76
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held
36 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 12:00pm ET $192.31 60 $11,538.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:40am ET $186.22 60 $11,173.20 $11,342.07 $-365.40
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
37 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 11:00am ET $182.77 62 $11,332.05 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 1:55pm ET $192.80 62 $11,953.60 $11,963.62 +$621.55
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
38 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 3:30pm ET $191.62 62 $11,880.44 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 11:00am ET $202.80 62 $12,573.60 $12,656.78 +$693.16
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
39 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $244.72 51 $12,480.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET $236.12 51 $12,042.25 $12,218.31 $-438.47
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
40 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:35am ET $225.75 54 $12,190.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 2:35pm ET $237.37 54 $12,817.98 $12,845.79 +$627.48
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5h held
41 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:35pm ET $211.38 60 $12,682.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:50am ET $204.73 60 $12,283.50 $12,446.79 $-399.00
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
42 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 1:40pm ET $203.34 61 $12,403.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET $178.60 61 $10,894.60 $10,937.66 $-1,509.13
(-12.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held
43 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 2:10pm ET $180.90 60 $10,854.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET $190.17 60 $11,410.20 $11,493.86 +$556.20
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
44 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:35am ET $189.29 60 $11,357.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET $183.21 60 $10,992.60 $11,129.36 $-364.50
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3d held
45 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $181.81 61 $11,090.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 12:05pm ET $176.29 61 $10,753.39 $10,792.34 $-337.02
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held
46 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 12:20pm ET $168.27 64 $10,769.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET $162.27 64 $10,385.28 $10,408.34 $-384.00
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.2h held
47 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET $153.34 67 $10,273.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET $147.33 67 $9,871.11 $10,006.00 $-402.34
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
48 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 11:00am ET $144.99 69 $10,004.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 11:55am ET $140.57 69 $9,699.33 $9,701.16 $-304.84
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
49 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 2:15pm ET $143.70 67 $9,627.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 10:25am ET $138.31 67 $9,266.77 $9,340.03 $-361.13
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held
50 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 10:50am ET $138.22 67 $9,260.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:40am ET $145.87 67 $9,772.96 $9,852.25 +$512.22
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
51 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:15am ET $141.51 69 $9,764.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:50am ET $136.83 69 $9,441.27 $9,529.33 $-322.92
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
52 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:55am ET $129.34 73 $9,441.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 3:10pm ET $125.22 73 $9,141.06 $9,228.57 $-300.76
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held
53 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 3:10pm ET $125.82 73 $9,184.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 10:00am ET $121.76 73 $8,888.48 $8,932.10 $-296.47
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
54 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 11:00am ET $126.26 70 $8,838.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 10:45am ET $122.07 70 $8,544.90 $8,638.45 $-293.65
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
55 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 10:45am ET $117.32 73 $8,564.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $123.26 73 $8,997.98 $9,071.71 +$433.26
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
56 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:40am ET $127.79 70 $8,945.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:40am ET $135.51 70 $9,485.63 $9,612.05 +$540.34
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
57 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 2:15pm ET $146.92 65 $9,549.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $140.11 65 $9,107.15 $9,169.40 $-442.65
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
58 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 1:00pm ET $145.06 63 $9,138.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $153.13 63 $9,647.19 $9,677.81 +$508.41
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
59 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 11:20am ET $155.67 62 $9,651.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 2:15pm ET $150.62 62 $9,338.44 $9,364.71 $-313.10
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
60 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $143.39 65 $9,320.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 10:10am ET $138.38 65 $8,994.70 $9,039.06 $-325.65
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
61 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 10:50am ET $142.18 63 $8,957.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $150.95 63 $9,509.85 $9,591.57 +$552.51
(+6.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
62 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 10:45am ET $149.23 64 $9,550.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET $143.98 64 $9,214.72 $9,255.89 $-335.68
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
63 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:50am ET $144.00 64 $9,216.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 10:20am ET $151.21 64 $9,677.44 $9,717.33 +$461.44
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held
64 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 2:00pm ET $157.56 61 $9,611.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $167.75 61 $10,232.75 $10,338.92 +$621.59
(+6.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
65 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 3:35pm ET $162.68 63 $10,249.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $157.75 63 $9,938.25 $10,028.02 $-310.90
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.9h held
66 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 11:05am ET $152.79 65 $9,931.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $141.48 65 $9,196.20 $9,293.19 $-734.83
(-7.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
67 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:50am ET $141.14 65 $9,174.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:35am ET $148.68 65 $9,664.20 $9,783.29 +$490.10
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
68 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:50am ET $146.63 66 $9,677.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $136.82 66 $9,030.12 $9,136.16 $-647.13
(-6.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,136.16
Net Profit/Loss: $-863.84
Total Return: -8.64%
Back to Marcus Reversal