PANW Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 49 trades in period
+3.00%
Year to Date Return
$15,422.40
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$14,973.64
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
30
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
6.6/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
2.4/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
30.1/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 29.6
30-Day Momentum
6
-0.1%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.1
Conf: 0.81×
Declining (-24 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,206
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$14,973.64
Current Value
$15,422.40
Period P&L
$448.74
Max Drawdown
-29.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
49
Winners / Losers
21 /
28
Best Trade
+6.07%
Worst Trade
-9.89%
Avg Trade Return
+0.14%
Avg Hold Time
3.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,472,273.64
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$448.74
Net P&L (after fees)
$448.74
Gross Return
+3.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.00%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 49 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $14,973.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 12:50pm ET | $186.21 | 81 | $15,083.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $180.19 | 81 | $14,595.35 | $14,636.60 |
$-487.66 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 11:35am ET | $184.63 | 79 | $14,585.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 11:55am ET | $194.00 | 79 | $15,326.00 | $15,376.83 |
+$740.23 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 11:55am ET | $189.70 | 81 | $15,365.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $183.80 | 81 | $14,887.40 | $14,898.52 |
$-478.31 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET | $182.83 | 81 | $14,808.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $176.50 | 81 | $14,296.50 | $14,386.20 |
$-512.32 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 3:05pm ET | $176.21 | 81 | $14,273.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $170.79 | 81 | $13,833.59 | $13,946.77 |
$-439.42 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $160.99 | 86 | $13,845.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $156.07 | 86 | $13,422.02 | $13,523.22 |
$-423.55 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $164.81 | 82 | $13,514.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $148.51 | 82 | $12,177.41 | $12,186.21 |
$-1,337.01 (-9.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $148.88 | 81 | $12,059.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:25am ET | $156.35 | 81 | $12,663.95 | $12,790.47 |
+$604.26 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:30am ET | $145.48 | 87 | $12,656.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 12:40pm ET | $140.41 | 87 | $12,216.10 | $12,349.81 |
$-440.66 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 3:35pm ET | $144.45 | 85 | $12,277.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:40am ET | $152.16 | 85 | $12,933.60 | $13,005.50 |
+$655.69 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 11:15am ET | $161.99 | 80 | $12,959.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $170.23 | 80 | $13,618.00 | $13,664.30 |
+$658.80 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 10:50am ET | $168.71 | 80 | $13,497.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 12:40pm ET | $163.60 | 80 | $13,088.00 | $13,255.10 |
$-409.20 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $164.36 | 80 | $13,148.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $158.08 | 80 | $12,646.40 | $12,752.70 |
$-502.40 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET | $155.68 | 81 | $12,610.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.33 | 81 | $11,933.73 | $12,075.95 |
$-676.75 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:05pm ET | $157.37 | 76 | $11,960.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $165.28 | 76 | $12,561.28 | $12,677.11 |
+$601.16 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $169.73 | 74 | $12,560.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 1:00pm ET | $164.60 | 74 | $12,180.40 | $12,297.49 |
$-379.62 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 1:35pm ET | $154.29 | 79 | $12,189.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 1:45pm ET | $162.04 | 79 | $12,801.55 | $12,909.74 |
+$612.25 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 1:55pm ET | $160.65 | 80 | $12,851.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $170.40 | 80 | $13,632.00 | $13,690.14 |
+$780.40 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:05am ET | $168.55 | 81 | $13,652.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 10:10am ET | $177.05 | 81 | $14,341.05 | $14,378.64 |
+$688.50 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $173.73 | 82 | $14,245.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $182.50 | 82 | $14,965.00 | $15,097.78 |
+$719.14 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:55am ET | $182.15 | 82 | $14,935.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $175.20 | 82 | $14,366.40 | $14,528.29 |
$-569.49 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $181.49 | 80 | $14,519.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.08 | 80 | $15,286.40 | $15,295.49 |
+$767.20 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.7d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 12:40pm ET | $235.04 | 65 | $15,277.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:10am ET | $246.81 | 65 | $16,042.65 | $16,060.54 |
+$765.05 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 11:40am ET | $243.58 | 65 | $15,832.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $256.08 | 65 | $16,644.88 | $16,872.72 |
+$812.18 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $251.99 | 66 | $16,631.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $265.49 | 66 | $17,522.34 | $17,763.72 |
+$891.00 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $288.97 | 61 | $17,627.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $279.01 | 61 | $17,019.62 | $17,156.17 |
$-607.55 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $272.65 | 62 | $16,904.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $260.95 | 62 | $16,178.90 | $16,430.77 |
$-725.40 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:30am ET | $263.48 | 62 | $16,336.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 1:30pm ET | $277.21 | 62 | $17,187.02 | $17,281.72 |
+$850.95 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 3:35pm ET | $278.77 | 61 | $17,004.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $293.34 | 61 | $17,893.74 | $18,170.79 |
+$889.07 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 1:30pm ET | $290.88 | 62 | $18,034.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $308.45 | 62 | $19,123.90 | $19,260.13 |
+$1,089.34 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 2:15pm ET | $352.95 | 54 | $19,059.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $337.99 | 54 | $18,251.46 | $18,452.29 |
$-807.84 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 3:05pm ET | $344.02 | 53 | $18,233.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $333.64 | 53 | $17,682.92 | $17,902.15 |
$-550.14 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:35am ET | $328.33 | 54 | $17,729.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $318.17 | 54 | $17,180.91 | $17,353.51 |
$-548.64 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 2:30pm ET | $350.45 | 49 | $17,172.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 10:10am ET | $339.21 | 49 | $16,621.29 | $16,802.51 |
$-551.00 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 2:25pm ET | $333.62 | 50 | $16,681.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 10:10am ET | $323.57 | 50 | $16,178.61 | $16,300.13 |
$-502.38 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 1:35pm ET | $326.23 | 49 | $15,985.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $310.71 | 49 | $15,225.03 | $15,540.14 |
$-759.99 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $315.91 | 49 | $15,479.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $332.31 | 49 | $16,283.19 | $16,343.74 |
+$803.60 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 10:50am ET | $367.30 | 44 | $16,161.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $352.36 | 44 | $15,503.84 | $15,686.38 |
$-657.36 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 10:50am ET | $361.61 | 43 | $15,549.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 10:05am ET | $381.90 | 43 | $16,421.70 | $16,558.64 |
+$872.26 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 2:20pm ET | $382.29 | 43 | $16,438.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $370.42 | 43 | $15,928.06 | $16,048.23 |
$-510.41 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 9:45am ET | $368.32 | 43 | $15,837.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:10am ET | $353.99 | 43 | $15,221.57 | $15,432.04 |
$-616.19 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 11:20am ET | $351.76 | 43 | $15,125.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 1:35pm ET | $340.29 | 43 | $14,632.47 | $14,938.83 |
$-493.21 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $338.66 | 44 | $14,901.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $358.56 | 44 | $15,776.64 | $15,814.43 |
+$875.60 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.6h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $376.93 | 41 | $15,454.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:50am ET | $365.41 | 41 | $14,981.81 | $15,342.11 |
$-472.32 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 10:50am ET | $375.23 | 40 | $15,009.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $363.46 | 40 | $14,538.40 | $14,871.11 |
$-471.00 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $330.38 | 45 | $14,867.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $347.31 | 45 | $15,628.79 | $15,632.80 |
+$761.69 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 1:40pm ET | $377.13 | 41 | $15,462.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $365.11 | 41 | $14,969.71 | $15,140.18 |
$-492.62 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $368.55 | 41 | $15,110.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 10:10am ET | $356.90 | 41 | $14,633.10 | $14,662.68 |
$-477.50 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 11:45am ET | $371.32 | 39 | $14,481.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 3:00pm ET | $390.80 | 39 | $15,241.20 | $15,422.40 |
+$759.72 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,422.40
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,422.40
Total Return:
+54.22%