PYPL Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 35 trades in period
-5.53%
Year to Date Return
$10,716.89
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$11,344.65
Period Start
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
15
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.7/35
Total Return
7.6/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
5.6/10
Raw Quality
15.2/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 14.9
30-Day Momentum
2
-7.9%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9
Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-13 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,568
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
190 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$11,344.65
Current Value
$10,716.89
Period P&L
$-627.76
Max Drawdown
-35.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
35
Winners / Losers
15 /
20
Best Trade
+17.51%
Worst Trade
-16.95%
Avg Trade Return
-0.01%
Avg Hold Time
5.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$675,611.35
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-627.76
Net P&L (after fees)
$-627.76
Gross Return
-5.53%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.53%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PYPL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 190 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 35 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $11,344.65 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 12:55pm ET | $59.47 | 194 | $11,537.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $57.60 | 194 | $11,174.40 | $11,193.32 |
$-362.78 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $56.98 | 196 | $11,168.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $55.20 | 196 | $10,818.22 | $10,843.46 |
$-349.86 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $55.41 | 195 | $10,803.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $53.71 | 195 | $10,473.45 | $10,512.94 |
$-330.53 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:45am ET | $52.52 | 200 | $10,504.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $43.62 | 200 | $8,724.00 | $8,732.94 |
$-1,780.00 (-16.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $40.42 | 216 | $8,730.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $39.13 | 216 | $8,452.08 | $8,454.30 |
$-278.64 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:30pm ET | $40.11 | 210 | $8,423.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $41.16 | 210 | $8,643.60 | $8,674.80 |
+$220.50 (+2.6%) |
📅 Sim Ended
3d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:40am ET | $40.53 | 214 | $8,673.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $42.58 | 214 | $9,111.05 | $9,112.43 |
+$437.63 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:30am ET | $40.63 | 224 | $9,100.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:30am ET | $44.54 | 224 | $9,978.08 | $9,990.51 |
+$878.08 (+9.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 10:50am ET | $46.54 | 214 | $9,960.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 12:20pm ET | $45.12 | 214 | $9,655.68 | $9,685.56 |
$-304.95 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 1:35pm ET | $45.87 | 211 | $9,677.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.23 | 211 | $9,332.53 | $9,340.30 |
$-345.26 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 1:50pm ET | $45.41 | 205 | $9,309.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 10:10am ET | $44.04 | 205 | $9,028.20 | $9,059.43 |
$-280.87 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $44.06 | 205 | $9,031.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $46.27 | 205 | $9,485.35 | $9,513.51 |
+$454.08 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:45am ET | $44.66 | 213 | $9,512.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:15pm ET | $46.90 | 213 | $9,988.64 | $9,989.57 |
+$476.06 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:10pm ET | $48.09 | 207 | $9,954.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.54 | 207 | $10,461.78 | $10,496.72 |
+$507.15 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $51.42 | 204 | $10,489.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $49.61 | 204 | $10,120.44 | $10,127.48 |
$-369.24 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.10 | 202 | $10,120.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $45.24 | 202 | $9,138.48 | $9,145.76 |
$-981.72 (-9.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $46.41 | 197 | $9,142.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.89 | 197 | $8,843.33 | $8,846.34 |
$-299.42 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.96 | 196 | $8,812.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $43.54 | 196 | $8,533.84 | $8,568.02 |
$-278.32 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $43.90 | 195 | $8,561.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 11:35am ET | $42.56 | 195 | $8,298.23 | $8,304.77 |
$-263.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 12:10pm ET | $42.97 | 193 | $8,294.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 10:35am ET | $41.60 | 193 | $8,027.84 | $8,038.43 |
$-266.34 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 12:05pm ET | $41.09 | 195 | $8,012.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 11:40am ET | $43.19 | 195 | $8,421.08 | $8,446.96 |
+$408.53 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 1:55pm ET | $43.33 | 194 | $8,406.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $41.88 | 194 | $8,123.75 | $8,164.69 |
$-282.27 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 10:55am ET | $42.40 | 192 | $8,140.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.67 | 192 | $8,576.64 | $8,600.53 |
+$435.84 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $43.82 | 196 | $8,588.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 10:55am ET | $42.37 | 196 | $8,304.52 | $8,316.33 |
$-284.20 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 1:20pm ET | $44.42 | 187 | $8,305.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.00 | 187 | $8,789.00 | $8,799.72 |
+$483.39 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.76 | 188 | $8,790.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.95 | 188 | $10,330.60 | $10,339.44 |
+$1,539.72 (+17.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 2:00pm ET | $57.33 | 180 | $10,320.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $55.58 | 180 | $10,004.40 | $10,023.54 |
$-315.90 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $56.31 | 178 | $10,022.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 2:05pm ET | $59.25 | 178 | $10,546.50 | $10,547.75 |
+$524.21 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.89 | 185 | $10,524.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $59.74 | 185 | $11,052.82 | $11,075.92 |
+$528.17 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.3d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 10:15am ET | $58.53 | 189 | $11,062.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 3:45pm ET | $61.49 | 189 | $11,621.61 | $11,635.36 |
+$559.44 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $60.03 | 193 | $11,585.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.16 | 193 | $10,259.88 | $10,309.45 |
$-1,325.91 (-11.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.28 | 193 | $10,283.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 1:30pm ET | $56.09 | 193 | $10,825.37 | $10,851.78 |
+$542.33 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 3:15pm ET | $54.63 | 198 | $10,817.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.99 | 198 | $10,491.03 | $10,525.08 |
$-326.70 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.08 | 206 | $10,521.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.65 | 206 | $11,051.90 | $11,055.53 |
+$530.45 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 1:55pm ET | $54.10 | 204 | $11,036.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 3:25pm ET | $52.44 | 204 | $10,697.76 | $10,716.89 |
$-338.64 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,716.89
Net Profit/Loss:
+$716.89
Total Return:
+7.17%