Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:13:42

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
14.6 oversold
20d Trend
-30.9%
5d Trend
-17.8%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.6%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

24
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.8/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
0.8/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 24.1/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 24.0

30-Day Momentum

7
+1.1%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 9.7 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-17 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
17,004
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$19,928.78
Current Value
$13,420.73
Period P&L
$-6,508.03
Max Drawdown
-35.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
59
Winners / Losers
20 / 39
Best Trade
+10.21%
Worst Trade
-12.04%
Avg Trade Return
-0.56%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,777,363.87
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-6,508.03
Net P&L (after fees)
$-6,508.03
Gross Return
-32.66%
Net Return (after fees)
-32.66%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SOFI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 59 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $19,928.78 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 12:55pm ET $29.25 681 $19,919.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET $28.24 681 $19,230.76 $19,240.25 $-688.49
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 10:10am ET $26.57 724 $19,236.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 12:45pm ET $27.93 724 $20,217.70 $20,221.34 +$981.09
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 12:50pm ET $27.84 726 $20,211.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $26.78 726 $19,442.28 $19,451.78 $-769.56
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:45am ET $26.52 733 $19,435.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET $25.70 733 $18,834.44 $18,850.72 $-601.06
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 11:10am ET $25.58 736 $18,826.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 2:25pm ET $24.75 736 $18,216.00 $18,239.84 $-610.88
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 10:40am ET $23.32 782 $18,232.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 2:35pm ET $22.58 782 $17,661.31 $17,668.83 $-571.02
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 2:55pm ET $22.21 795 $17,656.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET $21.51 795 $17,099.89 $17,111.77 $-557.06
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 12:30pm ET $20.27 843 $17,091.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:05am ET $19.62 843 $16,540.25 $16,560.20 $-551.57
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 1:25pm ET $20.87 793 $16,549.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $21.25 793 $16,855.21 $16,865.50 +$305.30
(+1.8%)
📅 Sim Ended
3.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET $19.27 875 $16,861.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 1:20pm ET $18.64 875 $16,306.32 $16,310.57 $-554.93
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 11:35am ET $18.30 891 $16,300.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET $19.22 891 $17,120.57 $17,130.29 +$819.72
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
22h held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 9:35am ET $19.15 894 $17,120.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET $18.12 894 $16,201.07 $16,211.26 $-919.03
(-5.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 2:10pm ET $18.07 897 $16,204.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 1:25pm ET $18.97 897 $17,014.83 $17,021.79 +$810.53
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 1:25pm ET $18.73 908 $17,006.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET $17.93 908 $16,280.44 $16,295.48 $-726.31
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 10:10am ET $18.07 901 $16,281.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 2:00pm ET $17.51 901 $15,775.70 $15,790.11 $-505.37
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 2:00pm ET $17.24 915 $15,774.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 2:25pm ET $16.67 915 $15,248.57 $15,264.17 $-525.94
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 2:55pm ET $17.23 886 $15,261.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 10:10am ET $16.70 886 $14,800.63 $14,803.45 $-460.72
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 1:30pm ET $17.16 862 $14,791.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:25am ET $16.62 862 $14,326.44 $14,337.97 $-465.48
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET $16.88 849 $14,326.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $16.25 849 $13,796.25 $13,807.35 $-530.63
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET $15.68 880 $13,798.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 2:00pm ET $15.19 880 $13,371.60 $13,380.55 $-426.80
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.5h held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 3:45pm ET $15.81 846 $13,371.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $15.18 846 $12,842.28 $12,851.80 $-528.75
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET $16.07 799 $12,835.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $17.70 799 $14,146.29 $14,162.16 +$1,310.36
(+10.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:30am ET $15.97 886 $14,149.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 12:50pm ET $16.77 886 $14,858.22 $14,870.96 +$708.80
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 2:20pm ET $17.68 840 $14,855.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 12:25pm ET $18.58 840 $15,611.40 $15,626.96 +$756.00
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 1:10pm ET $19.05 820 $15,620.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 10:30am ET $20.09 820 $16,477.90 $16,483.94 +$856.98
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 10:55am ET $19.23 857 $16,477.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:55am ET $18.61 857 $15,953.05 $15,959.71 $-524.23
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 11:00am ET $18.74 851 $15,943.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $16.48 851 $14,024.48 $14,040.70 $-1,919.01
(-12.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
28 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 12:30pm ET $16.13 870 $14,028.75 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 11:55am ET $15.63 870 $13,598.10 $13,610.05 $-430.65
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
29 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 10:00am ET $16.06 847 $13,598.59 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 12:55pm ET $15.56 847 $13,183.55 $13,195.02 $-415.03
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9h held
30 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 1:55pm ET $15.42 855 $13,184.10 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 10:15am ET $16.28 855 $13,919.40 $13,930.32 +$735.30
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
31 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 10:30am ET $15.13 921 $13,930.13 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:45am ET $15.90 921 $14,648.50 $14,648.70 +$718.38
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
32 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 1:35pm ET $15.95 918 $14,642.10 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 11:30am ET $16.78 918 $15,399.54 $15,406.14 +$757.44
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
33 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 2:05pm ET $18.32 840 $15,388.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET $17.74 840 $14,903.20 $14,920.54 $-485.60
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
34 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:40am ET $18.06 826 $14,913.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 3:00pm ET $17.49 826 $14,446.74 $14,453.85 $-466.69
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held
35 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 3:00pm ET $16.69 865 $14,441.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 11:15am ET $16.11 865 $13,939.47 $13,952.15 $-501.70
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
36 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 2:00pm ET $16.49 846 $13,946.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET $15.98 846 $13,519.08 $13,524.92 $-427.23
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held
37 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:30am ET $16.11 839 $13,516.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $17.31 839 $14,518.90 $14,527.44 +$1,002.52
(+7.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
38 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:55am ET $17.29 840 $14,525.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 9:45am ET $18.18 840 $15,275.40 $15,277.73 +$750.29
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
39 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 9:45am ET $17.51 872 $15,273.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $16.75 872 $14,606.00 $14,610.65 $-667.08
(-4.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
40 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 12:05pm ET $17.87 817 $14,599.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 3:10pm ET $17.27 817 $14,109.59 $14,120.45 $-490.20
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held
41 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 2:10pm ET $17.76 794 $14,105.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 12:50pm ET $18.65 794 $14,810.96 $14,826.00 +$705.55
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
42 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 10:55am ET $18.54 799 $14,813.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 10:15am ET $17.88 799 $14,286.12 $14,298.42 $-527.58
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held
43 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 10:15am ET $17.34 824 $14,289.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 10:40am ET $18.27 824 $15,056.62 $15,065.24 +$766.82
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
44 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:45am ET $18.93 795 $15,053.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 11:40am ET $18.32 795 $14,564.40 $14,576.32 $-488.92
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
45 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 11:40am ET $18.36 793 $14,563.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $17.81 793 $14,119.37 $14,132.24 $-444.08
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
46 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $17.27 818 $14,130.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET $16.51 818 $13,505.18 $13,506.47 $-625.77
(-4.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held
47 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:55am ET $17.08 790 $13,493.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 11:10am ET $16.57 790 $13,086.35 $13,099.54 $-406.93
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
48 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 1:10pm ET $16.53 792 $13,091.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:40am ET $17.40 792 $13,780.80 $13,788.58 +$689.04
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
49 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 9:40am ET $16.42 839 $13,780.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET $15.73 839 $13,197.47 $13,205.48 $-583.10
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
50 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $15.26 865 $13,201.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 12:05pm ET $16.13 865 $13,948.13 $13,951.80 +$746.32
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held
51 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 11:20am ET $18.65 748 $13,946.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $17.93 748 $13,415.38 $13,420.72 $-531.08
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held
52 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 11:25am ET $18.23 736 $13,413.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 10:55am ET $17.67 736 $13,008.80 $13,015.92 $-404.80
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
53 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 11:15am ET $17.98 723 $12,999.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $18.94 723 $13,693.62 $13,710.07 +$694.15
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held
54 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET $18.58 737 $13,697.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $17.73 737 $13,067.01 $13,079.94 $-630.13
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
55 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $17.52 746 $13,069.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET $18.59 746 $13,870.97 $13,880.99 +$801.05
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
56 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET $18.02 770 $13,875.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 11:05am ET $17.47 770 $13,451.90 $13,457.49 $-423.50
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
57 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 2:40pm ET $17.24 780 $13,443.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:00pm ET $16.66 780 $12,994.80 $13,008.99 $-448.50
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
58 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 3:00pm ET $16.76 775 $12,992.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $17.85 775 $13,837.62 $13,853.74 +$844.75
(+6.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
59 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:55am ET $16.94 817 $13,844.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:35am ET $16.42 817 $13,411.06 $13,420.73 $-433.01
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,420.73
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,420.73
Total Return: +34.21%
Back to Marcus Reversal