SPXU Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 37 trades in period
+11.50%
Year to Date Return
$9,689.47
Current Value
46%
Win Rate
$8,690.49
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality
3.9/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 3.9
30-Day Momentum
0
-1.3%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,283
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
190 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$8,690.49
Current Value
$9,689.47
Period P&L
$998.98
Max Drawdown
-30.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
17 /
20
Best Trade
+6.65%
Worst Trade
-8.61%
Avg Trade Return
+0.49%
Avg Hold Time
5.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$686,288.12
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$998.98
Net P&L (after fees)
$998.98
Gross Return
+11.50%
Net Return (after fees)
+11.50%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 190 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $8,690.49 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 3:35pm ET | $47.87 | 175 | $8,377.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:20pm ET | $50.28 | 175 | $8,799.00 | $8,802.49 |
+$421.75 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 2:25pm ET | $49.35 | 178 | $8,784.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $47.76 | 178 | $8,501.87 | $8,520.06 |
$-282.43 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $47.15 | 180 | $8,487.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:25pm ET | $49.70 | 180 | $8,946.00 | $8,978.34 |
+$458.28 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:25pm ET | $50.19 | 178 | $8,933.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET | $48.63 | 178 | $8,656.14 | $8,700.66 |
$-277.68 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 12:25pm ET | $47.21 | 184 | $8,686.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $47.31 | 184 | $8,705.04 | $8,719.06 |
+$18.40 (+0.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
3.5h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:20am ET | $49.94 | 174 | $8,690.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.25 | 174 | $8,395.50 | $8,424.30 |
$-294.76 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:30am ET | $48.68 | 173 | $8,422.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.67 | 173 | $8,938.91 | $8,940.93 |
+$516.63 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 10:20am ET | $49.66 | 180 | $8,938.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $52.65 | 180 | $9,477.00 | $9,479.11 |
+$538.18 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $53.22 | 178 | $9,472.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:30pm ET | $51.43 | 178 | $9,154.54 | $9,161.38 |
$-317.73 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 1:10pm ET | $51.58 | 177 | $9,129.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:05am ET | $54.18 | 177 | $9,589.86 | $9,621.56 |
+$460.18 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 1:30pm ET | $53.20 | 180 | $9,576.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.52 | 180 | $10,173.60 | $10,218.98 |
+$597.42 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.55 | 183 | $10,165.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $58.36 | 183 | $10,679.88 | $10,733.21 |
+$514.23 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.3d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $59.91 | 179 | $10,723.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $57.79 | 179 | $10,344.41 | $10,353.73 |
$-379.48 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 3:30pm ET | $55.18 | 187 | $10,318.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $58.00 | 187 | $10,845.81 | $10,880.88 |
+$527.15 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.2h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $54.92 | 198 | $10,873.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.19 | 198 | $9,937.82 | $9,944.93 |
$-935.95 (-8.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:35am ET | $50.10 | 198 | $9,919.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:50pm ET | $48.55 | 198 | $9,612.39 | $9,637.71 |
$-307.22 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 3:50pm ET | $46.56 | 206 | $9,592.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:15am ET | $45.08 | 206 | $9,285.45 | $9,330.77 |
$-306.94 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 12:50pm ET | $43.16 | 216 | $9,322.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $41.77 | 216 | $9,022.32 | $9,030.60 |
$-300.17 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:40am ET | $41.60 | 217 | $9,027.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $40.29 | 217 | $8,742.93 | $8,746.31 |
$-284.29 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 10:55am ET | $39.26 | 222 | $8,715.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.03 | 222 | $8,442.66 | $8,473.25 |
$-273.06 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 1:20pm ET | $38.31 | 221 | $8,466.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:45am ET | $37.10 | 221 | $8,199.10 | $8,205.84 |
$-267.41 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 12:50pm ET | $37.17 | 220 | $8,178.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 1:30pm ET | $36.06 | 220 | $7,932.10 | $7,959.44 |
$-246.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 1:50pm ET | $36.51 | 217 | $7,923.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:45pm ET | $38.38 | 217 | $8,329.54 | $8,365.23 |
+$405.79 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $37.95 | 220 | $8,349.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $40.20 | 220 | $8,844.00 | $8,860.23 |
+$495.00 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $40.22 | 220 | $8,848.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 3:30pm ET | $38.88 | 220 | $8,553.60 | $8,565.47 |
$-294.76 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.6h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.90 | 232 | $8,559.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $38.74 | 232 | $8,987.68 | $8,993.51 |
+$428.04 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $36.99 | 243 | $8,988.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $39.45 | 243 | $9,586.35 | $9,591.29 |
+$597.78 (+6.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $38.50 | 249 | $9,586.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $37.33 | 249 | $9,296.41 | $9,300.96 |
$-290.33 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 10:40am ET | $37.06 | 251 | $9,300.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 11:30am ET | $38.93 | 251 | $9,771.43 | $9,771.59 |
+$470.63 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 11:40am ET | $37.84 | 258 | $9,762.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 3:40pm ET | $39.74 | 258 | $10,252.92 | $10,261.79 |
+$490.20 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 3:40pm ET | $38.01 | 269 | $10,224.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.81 | 269 | $9,901.89 | $9,939.02 |
$-322.77 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.21 | 282 | $9,929.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 11:50am ET | $34.11 | 282 | $9,619.02 | $9,628.82 |
$-310.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $34.05 | 282 | $9,602.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $33.01 | 282 | $9,308.96 | $9,335.68 |
$-293.14 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 2:45pm ET | $33.26 | 280 | $9,314.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 2:10pm ET | $34.97 | 280 | $9,793.00 | $9,814.48 |
+$478.80 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 3:35pm ET | $34.67 | 283 | $9,811.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 10:55am ET | $33.60 | 283 | $9,510.21 | $9,513.09 |
$-301.39 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 3:45pm ET | $34.63 | 274 | $9,489.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET | $36.40 | 274 | $9,973.60 | $9,997.17 |
+$484.08 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 1:30pm ET | $35.57 | 281 | $9,995.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $34.47 | 281 | $9,687.47 | $9,689.47 |
$-307.70 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,689.47
Net Profit/Loss:
$-310.53
Total Return:
-3.11%