Compendium › Marcus Reversal › TMO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TMO
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 24 trades in period

+6.29%
Year to Date Return
$11,070.62
Current Value
46%
Win Rate
$10,415.16
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:53:23

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
29.6 oversold
20d Trend
-10.0%
5d Trend
-6.7%
EMA20 Dist
-7.6%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
48%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.3/35
Total Return
8.9/25
Win Rate
0.4/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality 15.9/100
× Confidence 0.93 = 14.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
14,451
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
183 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,415.16
Current Value
$11,070.62
Period P&L
$655.43
Max Drawdown
-28.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
11 / 13
Best Trade
+10.41%
Worst Trade
-10.63%
Avg Trade Return
+0.50%
Avg Hold Time
9.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$440,676.45
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$655.43
Net P&L (after fees)
$655.43
Gross Return
+6.29%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.29%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TMO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 183 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,415.16 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 10:25am ET $568.69 17 $9,667.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $606.64 17 $10,312.88 $10,818.77 +$645.24
(+6.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 10:50am ET $620.66 17 $10,551.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 12:35pm ET $601.86 17 $10,231.54 $10,499.08 $-319.68
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 12:35pm ET $615.00 17 $10,455.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET $575.87 17 $9,789.71 $9,833.79 $-665.30
(-6.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
14.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 9:40am ET $582.31 16 $9,316.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 2:05pm ET $564.46 16 $9,031.28 $9,548.11 $-285.68
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.2d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 2:05pm ET $548.82 17 $9,329.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $546.86 17 $9,296.62 $9,514.87 $-33.24
(-0.4%) 		📅 Sim Ended
4.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $539.72 17 $9,175.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 12:10pm ET $523.20 17 $8,894.40 $9,234.03 $-280.84
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $499.88 18 $8,997.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 10:25am ET $484.66 18 $8,723.88 $8,960.16 $-273.87
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 10:25am ET $469.92 19 $8,928.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 2:40pm ET $494.07 19 $9,387.33 $9,418.92 +$458.76
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
11.2d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 3:25pm ET $489.99 19 $9,309.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 10:10am ET $475.04 19 $9,025.76 $9,134.87 $-284.05
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:50am ET $482.41 18 $8,683.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 12:50pm ET $507.67 18 $9,137.97 $9,589.46 +$454.59
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
13.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 12:55pm ET $526.63 18 $9,479.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $470.67 18 $8,471.97 $8,582.09 $-1,007.37
(-10.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 2:25pm ET $471.45 18 $8,486.06 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 10:25am ET $457.25 18 $8,230.50 $8,326.53 $-255.56
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13.8d held
13 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 11:05am ET $455.36 18 $8,196.48 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:35am ET $439.45 18 $7,910.01 $8,040.06 $-286.47
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
14 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 12:45pm ET $438.70 18 $7,896.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 9:30am ET $462.37 18 $8,322.66 $8,466.12 +$426.06
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9.9d held
15 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $482.22 17 $8,197.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 1:05pm ET $467.57 17 $7,948.61 $8,216.99 $-249.13
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13.1d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 2:15pm ET $467.70 17 $7,950.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 9:55am ET $492.24 17 $8,368.08 $8,634.17 +$417.18
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
11.8d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 11:10am ET $505.45 17 $8,592.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 11:20am ET $531.17 17 $9,029.89 $9,071.32 +$437.15
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18d held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 1:00pm ET $534.71 16 $8,555.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $500.18 16 $8,002.88 $8,518.92 $-552.40
(-6.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 10:40am ET $518.99 16 $8,303.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $573.00 16 $9,168.00 $9,383.08 +$864.16
(+10.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 9:35am ET $560.23 16 $8,963.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 10:00am ET $588.33 16 $9,413.28 $9,832.68 +$449.60
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
21 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 12:25pm ET $575.94 17 $9,790.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 3:40pm ET $605.47 17 $10,292.99 $10,334.69 +$502.01
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
13.1d held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 9:45am ET $596.85 17 $10,146.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 11:00am ET $628.88 17 $10,690.96 $10,879.20 +$544.51
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:05pm ET $624.68 17 $10,619.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 11:00am ET $604.96 17 $10,284.24 $10,543.79 $-335.41
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10.9d held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:55am ET $605.56 17 $10,294.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 11:50am ET $636.55 17 $10,821.35 $11,070.62 +$526.83
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
13d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,070.62
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,070.62
Total Return: +10.71%
Back to Marcus Reversal