Compendium › Marcus Reversal › UNH
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
UNH
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 29 trades in period

+6.93%
Year to Date Return
$6,098.62
Current Value
45%
Win Rate
$5,703.14
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:48:12

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.4 oversold
20d Trend
-22.6%
5d Trend
-9.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.7%
ATR%
4.9%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality 5.6/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 5.4

30-Day Momentum

1
-5.4%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,600
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$5,703.14
Current Value
$6,098.62
Period P&L
$395.47
Max Drawdown
-54.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.07

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
13 / 16
Best Trade
+12.86%
Worst Trade
-17.62%
Avg Trade Return
+0.39%
Avg Hold Time
7.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$320,809.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$395.47
Net P&L (after fees)
$395.47
Gross Return
+6.93%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.93%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 UNH Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 29 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $5,703.14 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 29, 2025 11:00am ET $329.74 17 $5,605.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 1:30pm ET $346.60 17 $5,892.20 $5,993.51 +$286.71
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $349.01 17 $5,933.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 11:50am ET $338.42 17 $5,753.14 $5,813.48 $-180.03
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.9h held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 9:40am ET $345.39 16 $5,526.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $334.81 16 $5,356.88 $5,644.12 $-169.36
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:40am ET $336.97 16 $5,391.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 10:30am ET $354.06 16 $5,664.96 $5,917.63 +$273.52
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET $351.06 16 $5,616.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET $289.19 16 $4,627.04 $4,927.79 $-989.84
(-17.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 12:35pm ET $291.06 16 $4,656.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 11:20am ET $282.31 16 $4,516.96 $4,787.79 $-140.00
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 11:20am ET $276.88 17 $4,706.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:35am ET $268.21 17 $4,559.57 $4,640.49 $-147.31
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 2:50pm ET $274.66 16 $4,394.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $275.21 16 $4,403.44 $4,649.37 +$8.88
(+0.2%) 		📅 Sim Ended
3d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 12:55pm ET $290.53 16 $4,648.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 9:30am ET $280.42 16 $4,486.69 $4,487.58 $-161.79
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 2:25pm ET $281.84 15 $4,227.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 11:50am ET $273.21 15 $4,098.08 $4,358.06 $-129.52
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
25.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 12:25pm ET $271.94 16 $4,351.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 10:30am ET $262.93 16 $4,206.88 $4,213.90 $-144.16
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 1:35pm ET $259.71 16 $4,155.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $274.44 16 $4,391.04 $4,449.50 +$235.60
(+5.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $272.71 16 $4,363.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET $307.79 16 $4,924.64 $5,010.78 +$561.28
(+12.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET $306.22 16 $4,899.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:55am ET $321.58 16 $5,145.20 $5,256.46 +$245.68
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 10:40am ET $321.85 16 $5,149.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $353.89 16 $5,662.24 $5,769.11 +$512.65
(+10.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 1:20pm ET $354.52 16 $5,672.32 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $372.27 16 $5,956.32 $6,053.11 +$284.00
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held
17 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 9:40am ET $365.36 16 $5,845.76 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:35am ET $384.15 16 $6,146.40 $6,353.75 +$300.64
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
18 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 11:55am ET $399.20 15 $5,987.93 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:35am ET $385.17 15 $5,777.55 $6,143.38 $-210.37
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
19 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 12:35pm ET $392.15 15 $5,882.25 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:45am ET $379.52 15 $5,692.73 $5,953.86 $-189.52
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
20 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 1:00pm ET $381.54 15 $5,723.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:50am ET $400.64 15 $6,009.67 $6,240.40 +$286.54
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:30pm ET $400.97 15 $6,014.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:40am ET $422.23 15 $6,333.45 $6,559.30 +$318.90
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.8d held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET $419.25 15 $6,288.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET $453.75 15 $6,806.25 $7,076.80 +$517.50
(+8.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
17d held
23 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 10:45am ET $425.80 16 $6,812.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:40am ET $411.13 16 $6,578.08 $6,842.08 $-234.72
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18d held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 3:40pm ET $414.02 16 $6,624.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $401.36 16 $6,421.84 $6,639.60 $-202.48
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.7d held
25 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 10:45am ET $402.42 16 $6,438.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 12:05pm ET $390.19 16 $6,243.04 $6,443.95 $-195.65
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
26 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 1:30pm ET $385.61 16 $6,169.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 10:00am ET $405.73 16 $6,491.68 $6,765.87 +$321.92
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
27 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 10:00am ET $396.55 17 $6,741.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:50am ET $381.54 17 $6,486.18 $6,510.62 $-255.25
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13d held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 10:40am ET $389.84 16 $6,237.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 10:45am ET $377.83 16 $6,045.28 $6,318.46 $-192.16
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
29 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 1:15pm ET $383.93 16 $6,142.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET $370.19 16 $5,923.04 $6,098.62 $-219.84
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,098.62
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,901.38
Total Return: -39.01%
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