VXX Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 53 trades in period
-4.19%
Year to Date Return
$12,187.73
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$12,720.73
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
62.8 neutral
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+8.3%
EMA20 Dist
+8.3%
ATR%
4.8%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
1.8×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
18
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.4/35
Total Return
11.3/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
18.5/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 18.4
30-Day Momentum
2
-7.2%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9
Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,373
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$12,720.73
Current Value
$12,187.73
Period P&L
$-533.02
Max Drawdown
-32.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
53
Winners / Losers
20 /
33
Best Trade
+8.62%
Worst Trade
-8.89%
Avg Trade Return
+0.04%
Avg Hold Time
3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,535,588.46
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-533.02
Net P&L (after fees)
$-533.02
Gross Return
-4.19%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.19%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 VXX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 53 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,720.73 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 3:00pm ET | $26.26 | 480 | $12,602.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:50am ET | $27.62 | 480 | $13,257.60 | $13,258.34 |
+$654.91 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $26.24 | 505 | $13,251.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.04 | 505 | $14,160.20 | $14,166.73 |
+$908.39 (+6.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.29 | 500 | $14,145.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $27.43 | 500 | $13,715.00 | $13,736.73 |
$-430.00 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 11:10am ET | $26.25 | 523 | $13,728.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $27.79 | 523 | $14,532.23 | $14,540.22 |
+$803.48 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $27.01 | 538 | $14,528.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 11:35am ET | $26.19 | 538 | $14,090.22 | $14,101.75 |
$-438.47 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 3:15pm ET | $27.55 | 511 | $14,078.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $28.97 | 511 | $14,802.75 | $14,826.45 |
+$724.70 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:10am ET | $27.99 | 529 | $14,806.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $27.09 | 529 | $14,330.61 | $14,350.35 |
$-476.10 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:20am ET | $28.98 | 495 | $14,342.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 2:45pm ET | $28.09 | 495 | $13,904.55 | $13,912.27 |
$-438.08 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 3:50pm ET | $29.09 | 478 | $13,905.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:55am ET | $28.18 | 478 | $13,472.43 | $13,479.68 |
$-432.59 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 1:40pm ET | $28.92 | 466 | $13,474.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.88 | 466 | $12,992.08 | $12,997.37 |
$-482.31 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.27 | 476 | $12,982.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $28.69 | 476 | $13,656.44 | $13,670.91 |
+$673.54 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 10:50am ET | $28.72 | 476 | $13,670.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.60 | 476 | $14,565.60 | $14,565.79 |
+$894.88 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:25am ET | $32.01 | 455 | $14,564.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 1:10pm ET | $30.95 | 455 | $14,084.52 | $14,085.81 |
$-479.98 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:35pm ET | $29.17 | 482 | $14,057.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $30.90 | 482 | $14,893.80 | $14,922.08 |
+$836.27 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $35.23 | 423 | $14,902.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 12:30pm ET | $34.14 | 423 | $14,441.22 | $14,461.01 |
$-461.07 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 1:15pm ET | $30.92 | 467 | $14,439.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 2:20pm ET | $32.49 | 467 | $15,172.83 | $15,194.20 |
+$733.19 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 2:45pm ET | $33.01 | 460 | $15,184.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:50am ET | $34.70 | 460 | $15,962.32 | $15,971.92 |
+$777.72 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 1:30pm ET | $32.85 | 486 | $15,965.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $31.63 | 486 | $15,372.18 | $15,379.00 |
$-592.92 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 2:05pm ET | $33.69 | 456 | $15,360.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.59 | 456 | $16,685.04 | $16,703.22 |
+$1,324.22 (+8.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 12:00pm ET | $34.59 | 482 | $16,672.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:40pm ET | $36.48 | 482 | $17,583.36 | $17,614.20 |
+$910.98 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.7h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 2:40pm ET | $34.46 | 511 | $17,606.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:25pm ET | $36.31 | 511 | $18,551.86 | $18,559.55 |
+$945.35 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.03 | 488 | $18,558.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 10:30am ET | $36.88 | 488 | $17,999.88 | $18,000.79 |
$-558.76 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:55am ET | $34.78 | 517 | $17,983.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.83 | 517 | $19,041.11 | $19,058.06 |
+$1,057.27 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.63 | 550 | $19,046.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.55 | 550 | $17,352.56 | $17,364.11 |
$-1,693.95 (-8.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:00am ET | $31.47 | 551 | $17,337.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 1:40pm ET | $30.52 | 551 | $16,816.52 | $16,843.36 |
$-520.75 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $30.43 | 553 | $16,827.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.94 | 553 | $16,003.82 | $16,019.39 |
$-823.97 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 1:50pm ET | $29.33 | 546 | $16,016.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 11:25am ET | $28.43 | 546 | $15,522.78 | $15,525.26 |
$-494.13 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $29.42 | 527 | $15,504.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:55pm ET | $28.40 | 527 | $14,966.85 | $14,988.09 |
$-537.17 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:15am ET | $28.61 | 523 | $14,963.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:20am ET | $27.69 | 523 | $14,481.87 | $14,506.93 |
$-481.16 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:20am ET | $28.19 | 514 | $14,489.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 12:20pm ET | $27.27 | 514 | $14,016.78 | $14,034.05 |
$-472.88 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $27.03 | 519 | $14,028.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 3:30pm ET | $26.22 | 519 | $13,605.59 | $13,611.06 |
$-422.99 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.69 | 529 | $13,590.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 10:00am ET | $24.92 | 529 | $13,180.04 | $13,200.40 |
$-410.66 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $24.24 | 544 | $13,188.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 3:10pm ET | $25.47 | 544 | $13,855.68 | $13,867.78 |
+$667.38 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.2d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $24.28 | 571 | $13,866.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:00pm ET | $25.65 | 571 | $14,647.46 | $14,648.51 |
+$780.73 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 1:30pm ET | $25.78 | 568 | $14,643.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.98 | 568 | $14,185.80 | $14,191.27 |
$-457.24 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.01 | 616 | $14,177.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.21 | 616 | $13,681.36 | $13,695.39 |
$-495.88 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 12:35pm ET | $23.57 | 581 | $13,691.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $22.85 | 581 | $13,275.85 | $13,279.97 |
$-415.42 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $22.39 | 593 | $13,278.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.64 | 593 | $12,833.71 | $12,835.04 |
$-444.93 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 12:15pm ET | $21.58 | 594 | $12,821.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 11:25am ET | $22.68 | 594 | $13,474.89 | $13,488.44 |
+$653.40 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $21.75 | 620 | $13,488.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 12:55pm ET | $21.08 | 620 | $13,072.70 | $13,073.04 |
$-415.40 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:50am ET | $21.41 | 610 | $13,060.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.78 | 610 | $13,895.80 | $13,908.74 |
+$835.70 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.67 | 641 | $13,890.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.78 | 641 | $14,601.98 | $14,620.25 |
+$711.51 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.51 | 649 | $14,608.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.79 | 649 | $14,141.71 | $14,152.97 |
$-467.28 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 11:20am ET | $21.94 | 644 | $14,132.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 12:05pm ET | $23.07 | 644 | $14,857.08 | $14,877.47 |
+$724.50 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 12:20pm ET | $22.29 | 667 | $14,867.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.61 | 667 | $14,413.87 | $14,423.91 |
$-453.56 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.2h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.05 | 685 | $14,419.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 3:30pm ET | $20.41 | 685 | $13,980.85 | $13,985.51 |
$-438.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 1:35pm ET | $20.26 | 690 | $13,982.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 12:35pm ET | $19.65 | 690 | $13,555.05 | $13,557.71 |
$-427.80 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $19.44 | 697 | $13,549.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.82 | 697 | $13,117.54 | $13,125.57 |
$-432.14 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 11:20am ET | $18.77 | 699 | $13,123.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 12:30pm ET | $18.21 | 699 | $12,728.79 | $12,730.63 |
$-394.94 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 10:40am ET | $18.23 | 698 | $12,724.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $17.67 | 698 | $12,337.15 | $12,343.24 |
$-387.39 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 11:15am ET | $17.82 | 692 | $12,331.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.73 | 692 | $12,957.70 | $12,969.50 |
+$626.26 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.24 | 711 | $12,968.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.69 | 711 | $12,577.59 | $12,578.45 |
$-391.05 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 2:15pm ET | $17.85 | 704 | $12,569.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 11:10am ET | $17.30 | 704 | $12,179.20 | $12,187.73 |
$-390.72 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,187.73
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,187.73
Total Return:
+21.88%