Compendium › Marcus Reversal › WMT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
WMT
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 23 trades in period

-4.36%
Year to Date Return
$16,938.71
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$17,711.21
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:57:25

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
74 overbought
20d Trend
+6.1%
5d Trend
+7.2%
EMA20 Dist
+5.3%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
94%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

37
Lifetime
Confidence: 86%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
13.8/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
4.3/15
Profit Factor
2.6/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 42.7/100
× Confidence 0.86 = 36.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (86%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,814
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$17,711.21
Current Value
$16,938.71
Period P&L
$-772.49
Max Drawdown
-17.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
9 / 14
Best Trade
+6.02%
Worst Trade
-5.46%
Avg Trade Return
-0.21%
Avg Hold Time
9.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$814,659.63
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-772.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$-772.49
Gross Return
-4.36%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.36%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 WMT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $17,711.21 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 9:30am ET $114.14 158 $18,034.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $112.85 158 $17,830.30 $17,908.99 $-203.82
(-1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
32d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 9:50am ET $112.24 159 $17,846.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 10:50am ET $118.01 159 $18,763.59 $18,826.42 +$917.43
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 3:00pm ET $119.52 157 $18,765.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 10:10am ET $115.90 157 $18,196.30 $18,257.68 $-568.73
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 11:50am ET $116.60 156 $18,189.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 11:40am ET $122.69 156 $19,139.64 $19,207.72 +$950.04
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 1:25pm ET $128.35 149 $19,124.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $129.05 149 $19,228.45 $19,312.01 +$104.29
(+0.6%) 		📅 Sim Ended
5.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:05am ET $132.66 145 $19,235.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 12:50pm ET $128.66 145 $18,656.42 $18,732.73 $-579.28
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 1:30pm ET $126.36 148 $18,701.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 9:35am ET $122.10 148 $18,070.06 $18,101.51 $-631.22
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 11:50am ET $125.14 144 $18,020.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:40am ET $120.99 144 $17,421.84 $17,503.20 $-598.31
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 10:15am ET $120.00 145 $17,400.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $126.20 145 $18,299.00 $18,402.20 +$899.00
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
17d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET $125.07 147 $18,386.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:50am ET $131.47 147 $19,326.09 $19,342.27 +$940.07
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
16d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 10:10am ET $130.53 148 $19,318.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET $126.26 148 $18,686.48 $18,710.31 $-631.96
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
12 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 11:40am ET $132.26 141 $18,648.66 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 11:15am ET $128.18 141 $18,073.38 $18,135.03 $-575.28
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10d held
13 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 2:05pm ET $130.13 139 $18,088.07 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:30am ET $123.83 139 $17,212.37 $17,259.33 $-875.70
(-4.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8.8d held
14 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 9:45am ET $120.67 143 $17,255.81 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 10:00am ET $116.82 143 $16,705.26 $16,708.78 $-550.55
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 10:30am ET $114.79 145 $16,644.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 10:30am ET $120.62 145 $17,489.90 $17,554.13 +$845.35
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 1:00pm ET $119.48 146 $17,444.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 12:35pm ET $115.85 146 $16,914.10 $17,024.15 $-529.98
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 3:10pm ET $116.22 146 $16,968.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET $109.87 146 $16,041.02 $16,097.05 $-927.10
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 10:00am ET $110.68 145 $16,049.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $116.90 145 $16,950.50 $16,998.23 +$901.18
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
11d held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:35am ET $113.32 150 $16,998.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 12:50pm ET $109.91 150 $16,486.50 $16,486.73 $-511.50
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $107.39 153 $16,431.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET $113.86 153 $17,420.58 $17,475.94 +$989.21
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
21 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 9:35am ET $112.76 154 $17,365.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $109.36 154 $16,842.21 $16,953.11 $-522.83
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 11:45am ET $111.96 151 $16,905.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $106.51 151 $16,083.01 $16,130.16 $-822.95
(-4.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
14.9d held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 10:25am ET $102.53 157 $16,097.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 10:35am ET $107.68 157 $16,905.76 $16,938.71 +$808.55
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
13d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,938.71
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,938.71
Total Return: +69.39%
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