Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:58:57

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.7 oversold
20d Trend
-37.8%
5d Trend
-40.3%
EMA20 Dist
-38.0%
ATR%
13.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.5/10
Raw Quality 3.4/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 3.4

30-Day Momentum

34
+10.3%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 43.4 Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+30 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
36,162
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
126 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$717.40
Current Value
$327.70
Period P&L
$-436.94
Max Drawdown
-96.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.20

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
70
Winners / Losers
21 / 49
Best Trade
+5.85%
Worst Trade
-4.74%
Avg Trade Return
-0.78%
Avg Hold Time
2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$63,187.67
Estimated Fees
$157.97
Gross P&L
$-436.94
Net P&L (after fees)
$-594.91
Gross Return
-60.91%
Net Return (after fees)
-82.93%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XRPUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 126 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 70 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $717.40 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 8:55am ET $1.87 390 $727.68
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 11:55am ET $1.96 390 $765.00 $761.27 +$33.59
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
14.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 3, 2026 12:30am ET $2.04 374 $761.27
🔴 SELL Jan 4, 2026 8:35pm ET $2.15 374 $804.56 $800.65 +$39.38
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 4, 2026 11:40pm ET $2.12 378 $800.65
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 1:30pm ET $2.23 378 $844.07 $839.95 +$39.31
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
13.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 11:20pm ET $2.37 354 $839.95
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 11:25am ET $2.28 354 $808.25 $804.13 $-35.82
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12.1h held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 11:30am ET $2.30 350 $804.13
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 12:55pm ET $2.21 350 $773.20 $769.26 $-34.87
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 7:55pm ET $2.28 337 $769.26
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 9:15am ET $2.21 337 $745.60 $741.81 $-27.45
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 9:25am ET $2.21 335 $741.81
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 11:05pm ET $2.14 335 $719.03 $715.38 $-26.43
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13.7h held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 12:35am ET $2.15 332 $715.38
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 5:00am ET $2.08 332 $692.08 $688.57 $-26.81
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4h held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 5:15am ET $2.09 329 $688.57
🔴 SELL Jan 18, 2026 6:25pm ET $2.02 329 $665.01 $661.62 $-26.94
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10.6d held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 18, 2026 6:30pm ET $2.02 328 $661.62
🔴 SELL Jan 18, 2026 7:00pm ET $1.94 328 $636.98 $633.73 $-27.89
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 18, 2026 7:05pm ET $1.94 327 $633.73
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 5:30pm ET $1.87 327 $610.50 $607.39 $-26.34
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 8:55pm ET $1.90 320 $607.39
🔴 SELL Jan 25, 2026 12:10pm ET $1.84 320 $588.10 $585.11 $-22.27
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.6d held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 25, 2026 1:50pm ET $1.83 319 $585.11
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 10:10am ET $1.94 319 $619.36 $616.35 +$31.24
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 12:30pm ET $1.90 324 $616.35
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 9:40am ET $1.83 324 $593.88 $590.85 $-25.50
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 9:45am ET $1.84 321 $590.85
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 1:55pm ET $1.78 321 $572.41 $569.51 $-21.35
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2h held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 2:10pm ET $1.78 319 $569.51
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 9:20pm ET $1.73 319 $551.61 $548.80 $-20.70
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2h held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 9:25pm ET $1.73 317 $548.80
🔴 SELL Jan 31, 2026 8:30am ET $1.68 317 $531.29 $528.59 $-20.21
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5d held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 31, 2026 8:35am ET $1.67 316 $528.59
🔴 SELL Jan 31, 2026 9:35am ET $1.62 316 $512.26 $509.66 $-18.94
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held
19 🟢 BUY Jan 31, 2026 9:40am ET $1.62 315 $509.66
🔴 SELL Jan 31, 2026 12:10pm ET $1.56 315 $490.71 $488.21 $-21.45
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held
20 🟢 BUY Jan 31, 2026 12:15pm ET $1.57 312 $488.21
🔴 SELL Jan 31, 2026 6:20pm ET $1.65 312 $514.77 $512.26 +$24.05
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.1h held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 1, 2026 2:15am ET $1.65 311 $512.26
🔴 SELL Feb 1, 2026 10:10am ET $1.60 311 $496.74 $494.22 $-18.04
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9h held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 1, 2026 10:15am ET $1.59 311 $494.22
🔴 SELL Feb 1, 2026 10:25pm ET $1.54 311 $477.10 $474.68 $-19.55
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12.2h held
23 🟢 BUY Feb 1, 2026 10:30pm ET $1.54 309 $474.68
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 4:45am ET $1.62 309 $499.65 $497.21 +$22.54
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.3h held
24 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 12:35pm ET $1.64 303 $497.21
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 9:45pm ET $1.59 303 $481.95 $479.50 $-17.71
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.2h held
25 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 9:50pm ET $1.59 301 $479.50
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 1:20pm ET $1.54 301 $464.03 $461.67 $-17.83
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
15.5h held
26 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 1:25pm ET $1.54 300 $461.67
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 3:35pm ET $1.62 300 $487.16 $484.78 +$23.11
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held
27 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 5:10pm ET $1.59 304 $484.78
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET $1.54 304 $469.45 $467.06 $-17.72
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
16.8h held
28 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 12:35pm ET $1.51 310 $467.06
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 9:10pm ET $1.46 310 $452.65 $450.35 $-16.71
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8.6h held
29 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:45pm ET $1.44 313 $450.35
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 5:05am ET $1.40 313 $436.45 $434.24 $-16.11
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.3h held
30 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 5:15am ET $1.41 308 $434.24
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 5:50am ET $1.36 308 $419.75 $417.62 $-16.62
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
36m held
31 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 5:55am ET $1.36 306 $417.62
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $1.32 306 $403.11 $401.06 $-16.56
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held
32 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:20am ET $1.30 309 $401.06
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 12:05pm ET $1.24 309 $382.04 $380.08 $-20.98
(-4.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held
33 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 12:10pm ET $1.23 309 $380.08
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 3:15pm ET $1.18 309 $364.52 $362.66 $-17.42
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held
34 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET $1.15 314 $362.66
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 5:45pm ET $1.22 314 $381.63 $379.77 +$17.11
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held
35 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $1.15 330 $379.77
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET $1.21 330 $400.56 $398.61 +$18.84
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
24m held
36 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 2:00am ET $1.30 308 $398.61
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 5:25am ET $1.36 308 $418.74 $416.69 +$18.09
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.4h held
37 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:50am ET $1.50 277 $416.69
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 1:20pm ET $1.45 277 $403.22 $401.17 $-15.52
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held
38 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 1:25pm ET $1.46 276 $401.17
🔴 SELL Feb 7, 2026 2:30am ET $1.41 276 $388.76 $386.79 $-14.39
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13.1h held
39 🟢 BUY Feb 7, 2026 2:35am ET $1.41 273 $386.79
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:40am ET $1.44 273 $393.73 $391.77 +$4.99
(+1.8%)
📅 Sim Ended
2.9d held
40 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 1:20am ET $1.43 273 $391.77
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 11:35pm ET $1.39 273 $378.85 $378.85 $-14.85
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held
41 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 11:45pm ET $1.39 273 $378.85
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 11:55am ET $1.34 273 $367.32 $367.32 $-13.40
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12.2h held
42 🟢 BUY Feb 16, 2026 1:50pm ET $1.47 249 $367.32
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 2:35pm ET $1.43 249 $355.87 $355.87 $-13.26
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
43 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 2:40pm ET $1.42 250 $355.87
🔴 SELL Feb 22, 2026 7:35pm ET $1.38 250 $344.61 $344.61 $-13.02
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held
44 🟢 BUY Feb 22, 2026 7:40pm ET $1.37 251 $344.61
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 10:30pm ET $1.33 251 $333.94 $333.94 $-12.37
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
45 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 10:35pm ET $1.33 251 $333.94
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 7:55am ET $1.40 251 $351.32 $351.32 +$15.67
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.4d held
46 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 2:35pm ET $1.45 241 $351.32
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 10:35am ET $1.41 241 $340.23 $340.23 $-12.82
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held
47 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 11:45am ET $1.41 242 $340.23
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 9:50am ET $1.36 242 $329.93 $329.93 $-11.98
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held
48 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 10:40am ET $1.36 243 $329.93
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2026 1:40am ET $1.31 243 $319.73 $319.73 $-11.82
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
15h held
49 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2026 1:45am ET $1.32 242 $319.73
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2026 4:10am ET $1.28 242 $308.93 $308.93 $-12.37
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4h held
50 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2026 4:15am ET $1.28 241 $308.93
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2026 1:55pm ET $1.35 241 $324.41 $324.41 +$13.90
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
9.7h held
51 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2026 11:15pm ET $1.41 229 $324.41
🔴 SELL Mar 1, 2026 4:55am ET $1.37 229 $314.38 $314.38 $-11.63
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.7h held
52 🟢 BUY Mar 1, 2026 7:35am ET $1.37 229 $314.38
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 10:30am ET $1.45 229 $332.32 $332.32 +$16.32
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
53 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 4:35pm ET $1.45 230 $332.32
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 11:05am ET $1.40 230 $321.82 $321.82 $-12.13
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held
54 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 11:10am ET $1.40 230 $321.82
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:45am ET $1.35 230 $311.35 $311.35 $-12.05
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held
55 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:50am ET $1.35 230 $311.35
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 10:45am ET $1.42 230 $327.67 $327.67 +$14.72
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
56 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 1:25pm ET $1.42 231 $327.67
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 1:45am ET $1.38 231 $317.60 $317.60 $-11.68
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12.3h held
57 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2026 1:55am ET $1.38 231 $317.60
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 9:35am ET $1.45 231 $333.75 $333.75 +$14.52
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held
58 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 10:45am ET $1.43 233 $333.75
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:55am ET $1.51 233 $352.26 $352.26 +$16.79
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
59 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 4:15pm ET $1.53 231 $352.26
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 8:30am ET $1.46 231 $338.07 $338.07 $-15.91
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held
60 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 8:35am ET $1.46 231 $338.07
🔴 SELL Mar 21, 2026 7:50pm ET $1.41 231 $326.26 $326.26 $-13.48
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5d held
61 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 4:35pm ET $1.45 230 $332.32
🔴 SELL Mar 22, 2026 4:05am ET $1.40 230 $321.99 $315.93 $-11.97
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.4d held
62 🟢 BUY Mar 22, 2026 4:10am ET $1.40 226 $315.93
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 11:15am ET $1.36 226 $306.41 $306.41 $-11.07
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3d held
63 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 11:20am ET $1.36 226 $306.41
🔴 SELL Mar 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $1.32 226 $297.16 $297.16 $-10.76
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
64 🟢 BUY Mar 29, 2026 4:00pm ET $1.32 226 $297.16
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 7:25pm ET $1.38 226 $312.51 $312.51 +$13.82
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
9.1d held
65 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 8:35pm ET $1.36 229 $312.51
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 10:35am ET $1.32 229 $303.03 $303.03 $-11.02
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held
66 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 5:30pm ET $1.35 224 $303.03
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 8:15am ET $1.42 224 $318.20 $318.20 +$13.62
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.6d held
67 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 10:25am ET $1.40 228 $318.20
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 3:50pm ET $1.47 228 $334.22 $334.22 +$14.39
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.4h held
68 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 4:40pm ET $1.45 231 $334.22
🔴 SELL Apr 19, 2026 6:05pm ET $1.40 231 $323.86 $323.86 $-12.01
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
69 🟢 BUY Apr 19, 2026 6:15pm ET $1.40 231 $323.86
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 2:10pm ET $1.35 231 $311.68 $311.68 $-13.77
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held
70 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 2:20pm ET $1.35 231 $311.68
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 12:20am ET $1.42 231 $327.70 $327.70 +$14.42
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.4d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $327.70
Net Profit/Loss: $-9,672.30
Total Return: -96.72%
Back to Marcus Reversal