MCD Marcus Reversal's Analysis
2024-01-03 16:10:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 57 trades executed
-2.64%
2 Years Return
$9,721.12
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$9,984.74
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
71.6 overbought
20d Trend
+5.3%
5d Trend
+2.7%
EMA20 Dist
+2.8%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
87%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
7
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
7.6/100
× Confidence 0.87
= 6.6
30-Day Momentum
0
-9.1%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
44,699
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
520 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$9,984.74
Current Value
$9,721.12
Total P&L
$-263.62
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
43
Winners / Losers
19 /
24
Best Trade
+6.12%
Worst Trade
-4.90%
Avg Trade Return
+0.04%
Avg Hold Time
15.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$878,421.08
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-263.62
Net P&L (after fees)
$-263.62
Gross Return
-2.64%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.64%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MCD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 520 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,984.74 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 20, 2024 3:05pm ET | $296.75 | 33 | $9,792.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2024 9:30am ET | $314.93 | 33 | $10,392.53 | $10,488.49 |
+$599.76 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2024 9:30am ET | $310.40 | 33 | $10,243.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 23, 2024 9:30am ET | $295.19 | 33 | $9,741.27 | $9,986.56 |
$-501.93 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2024 2:30pm ET | $300.75 | 33 | $9,924.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 30, 2024 3:45pm ET | $289.95 | 33 | $9,568.19 | $9,630.00 |
$-356.57 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2024 3:55pm ET | $292.21 | 32 | $9,350.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2024 9:30am ET | $293.01 | 32 | $9,376.39 | $9,655.67 |
+$25.67 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
31.8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2024 9:35am ET | $290.61 | 33 | $9,590.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2025 9:35am ET | $292.84 | 33 | $9,663.72 | $9,729.35 |
+$73.68 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 3, 2025 9:45am ET | $291.28 | 33 | $9,612.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 10, 2025 3:45pm ET | $282.48 | 33 | $9,321.84 | $9,439.06 |
$-290.29 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.3d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2025 10:40am ET | $281.01 | 33 | $9,273.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2025 9:35am ET | $296.19 | 33 | $9,774.27 | $9,940.00 |
+$500.94 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2025 1:50pm ET | $294.52 | 33 | $9,719.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2025 10:20am ET | $309.29 | 33 | $10,206.57 | $10,427.41 |
+$487.41 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2025 1:00pm ET | $309.98 | 33 | $10,229.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2025 9:35am ET | $300.40 | 33 | $9,913.20 | $10,111.27 |
$-316.14 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2025 10:00am ET | $299.24 | 33 | $9,874.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 7, 2025 9:40am ET | $315.61 | 33 | $10,415.13 | $10,651.65 |
+$540.38 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 11:55am ET | $321.51 | 33 | $10,609.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2025 10:00am ET | $310.71 | 33 | $10,253.43 | $10,295.25 |
$-356.40 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2025 10:00am ET | $300.36 | 34 | $10,212.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2025 9:55am ET | $315.53 | 34 | $10,728.02 | $10,811.03 |
+$515.78 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 28, 2025 9:55am ET | $308.00 | 35 | $10,780.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $293.58 | 35 | $10,275.13 | $10,306.15 |
$-504.88 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2025 11:10am ET | $303.47 | 33 | $10,014.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2025 11:55am ET | $318.65 | 33 | $10,515.29 | $10,806.93 |
+$500.77 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2025 12:20pm ET | $316.59 | 34 | $10,763.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2025 9:35am ET | $306.97 | 34 | $10,436.98 | $10,479.95 |
$-326.97 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2025 3:50pm ET | $314.03 | 33 | $10,362.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $301.14 | 33 | $9,937.75 | $10,054.71 |
$-425.24 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
24.7d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $301.63 | 33 | $9,953.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2025 2:10pm ET | $292.49 | 33 | $9,652.17 | $9,753.09 |
$-301.62 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2025 2:10pm ET | $289.50 | 33 | $9,553.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 18, 2025 2:10pm ET | $297.17 | 33 | $9,806.61 | $10,006.16 |
+$253.07 (+2.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2025 3:05pm ET | $296.73 | 33 | $9,791.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2025 9:45am ET | $312.29 | 33 | $10,305.57 | $10,519.81 |
+$513.65 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
28.8d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2025 12:00pm ET | $313.96 | 33 | $10,360.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2025 9:35am ET | $304.14 | 33 | $10,036.62 | $10,195.75 |
$-324.06 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2025 12:15pm ET | $303.76 | 33 | $10,023.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 9:45am ET | $294.52 | 33 | $9,719.16 | $9,890.99 |
$-304.76 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 9:50am ET | $294.82 | 33 | $9,728.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 10:20am ET | $309.93 | 33 | $10,227.69 | $10,389.79 |
+$498.80 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 10:20am ET | $307.83 | 33 | $10,158.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 9:45am ET | $298.53 | 33 | $9,851.49 | $10,082.89 |
$-306.90 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 3, 2025 9:45am ET | $295.75 | 34 | $10,055.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 11:05am ET | $310.68 | 34 | $10,562.95 | $10,590.34 |
+$507.45 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 1:10pm ET | $310.91 | 34 | $10,570.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 9:35am ET | $301.40 | 34 | $10,247.53 | $10,266.93 |
$-323.41 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 10:45am ET | $304.21 | 33 | $10,038.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 3:50pm ET | $319.43 | 33 | $10,541.19 | $10,769.35 |
+$502.43 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 3:50pm ET | $314.54 | 34 | $10,694.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $302.95 | 34 | $10,300.13 | $10,375.29 |
$-394.06 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.7d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $301.21 | 34 | $10,241.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:55am ET | $316.59 | 34 | $10,763.89 | $10,898.04 |
+$522.75 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 12:10pm ET | $311.68 | 34 | $10,596.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $327.38 | 34 | $11,130.75 | $11,431.84 |
+$533.80 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:40pm ET | $326.12 | 35 | $11,414.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $325.51 | 35 | $11,392.85 | $11,410.49 |
$-21.35 (-0.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
3.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:50am ET | $326.31 | 34 | $11,094.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 3:20pm ET | $316.46 | 34 | $10,759.64 | $11,075.70 |
$-334.79 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
29.1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $309.45 | 35 | $10,830.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $312.27 | 35 | $10,929.45 | $11,174.40 |
+$98.70 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
31d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $303.68 | 36 | $10,932.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:10am ET | $294.46 | 36 | $10,600.74 | $10,842.48 |
$-331.92 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 1:25pm ET | $293.68 | 36 | $10,572.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 12:55pm ET | $284.67 | 36 | $10,248.30 | $10,518.30 |
$-324.18 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 1:05pm ET | $284.53 | 36 | $10,243.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 3:05pm ET | $275.98 | 36 | $9,935.28 | $10,210.50 |
$-307.80 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 2:15pm ET | $276.43 | 36 | $9,951.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 2:15pm ET | $285.27 | 36 | $10,269.54 | $10,528.56 |
+$318.06 (+3.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 3:20pm ET | $285.58 | 36 | $10,280.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $276.21 | 36 | $9,943.56 | $10,191.24 |
$-337.32 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 12:00pm ET | $271.53 | 37 | $10,046.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $286.10 | 37 | $10,585.70 | $10,730.33 |
+$539.09 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.9d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:40am ET | $277.89 | 38 | $10,560.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $269.47 | 38 | $10,239.86 | $10,410.18 |
$-320.15 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 2:55pm ET | $266.17 | 39 | $10,380.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 2:55pm ET | $273.43 | 39 | $10,663.77 | $10,693.32 |
+$283.14 (+2.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 3:20pm ET | $265.70 | 40 | $10,628.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 10:05am ET | $257.30 | 40 | $10,292.20 | $10,357.52 |
$-335.80 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.8d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $256.62 | 40 | $10,264.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 10:05am ET | $248.57 | 40 | $9,942.80 | $10,035.52 |
$-322.00 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 2:55pm ET | $249.30 | 40 | $9,972.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $241.44 | 40 | $9,657.60 | $9,721.12 |
$-314.40 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,721.12
Net Profit/Loss:
$-278.88
Total Return:
-2.79%