XLF Marcus Reversal's Analysis
2024-01-02 19:30:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 50 trades executed
+22.24%
2 Years Return
$14,720.60
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$12,042.56
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
44.4 neutral
20d Trend
-1.7%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.7%
ATR%
1.2%
Range Pos
44%
Bounce Ratio
1.3×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
40
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
14.4/35
Total Return
14.0/25
Win Rate
6.8/15
Profit Factor
3.7/15
Consistency
6.5/10
Raw Quality
45.3/100
× Confidence 0.87
= 39.5
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
62,990
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$12,042.56
Current Value
$14,720.60
Total P&L
$2,678.04
Max Drawdown
-11.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.17
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
39
Winners / Losers
21 /
18
Best Trade
+5.69%
Worst Trade
-3.51%
Avg Trade Return
+0.58%
Avg Hold Time
16.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,060,108.65
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,678.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,678.04
Gross Return
+22.24%
Net Return (after fees)
+22.24%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLF Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,042.56 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 20, 2024 2:05pm ET | $45.48 | 264 | $12,006.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2024 9:40am ET | $47.77 | 264 | $12,611.28 | $12,633.93 |
+$604.56 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
26.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 18, 2024 9:50am ET | $47.44 | 266 | $12,617.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2024 9:35am ET | $49.89 | 266 | $13,270.74 | $13,286.96 |
+$653.03 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2024 9:35am ET | $49.87 | 266 | $13,264.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2024 9:35am ET | $49.89 | 266 | $13,271.72 | $13,294.59 |
+$7.63 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 13, 2024 10:40am ET | $49.45 | 268 | $13,252.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2024 3:35pm ET | $47.95 | 268 | $12,849.26 | $12,891.25 |
$-403.34 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.2d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 20, 2024 1:35pm ET | $48.56 | 265 | $12,868.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $50.48 | 265 | $13,377.20 | $13,400.05 |
+$508.80 (+4.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
31.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2025 10:05am ET | $50.34 | 266 | $13,390.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 21, 2025 10:05am ET | $51.43 | 266 | $13,679.05 | $13,688.66 |
+$288.61 (+2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2025 3:10pm ET | $51.16 | 267 | $13,659.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2025 11:30am ET | $49.60 | 267 | $13,243.20 | $13,272.14 |
$-416.52 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2025 12:05pm ET | $49.40 | 268 | $13,239.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2025 1:40pm ET | $47.91 | 268 | $12,839.88 | $12,872.82 |
$-399.32 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2025 3:55pm ET | $47.59 | 270 | $12,847.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2025 9:45am ET | $49.98 | 270 | $13,494.60 | $13,519.47 |
+$646.65 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.7d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2025 11:40am ET | $50.38 | 268 | $13,500.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2025 9:40am ET | $48.66 | 268 | $13,040.88 | $13,059.85 |
$-459.62 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2025 10:10am ET | $49.21 | 265 | $13,040.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 3, 2025 3:55pm ET | $47.67 | 265 | $12,632.55 | $12,651.75 |
$-408.10 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $42.63 | 296 | $12,618.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 10:15am ET | $44.89 | 296 | $13,287.44 | $13,320.71 |
+$668.96 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
48m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2025 11:05am ET | $45.46 | 293 | $13,318.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2025 3:05pm ET | $43.99 | 293 | $12,889.07 | $12,891.47 |
$-429.24 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 9:50am ET | $46.31 | 278 | $12,874.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2025 12:20pm ET | $44.88 | 278 | $12,475.25 | $12,492.54 |
$-398.93 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2025 12:00pm ET | $47.03 | 265 | $12,462.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2025 11:30am ET | $45.62 | 265 | $12,087.98 | $12,117.56 |
$-374.98 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2025 1:20pm ET | $46.69 | 259 | $12,091.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2025 3:45pm ET | $49.06 | 259 | $12,705.25 | $12,731.39 |
+$613.83 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $49.24 | 258 | $12,702.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2025 12:35pm ET | $51.71 | 258 | $13,339.89 | $13,368.65 |
+$637.26 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2025 12:35pm ET | $51.32 | 260 | $13,343.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $50.43 | 260 | $13,111.80 | $13,137.25 |
$-231.40 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 10:55am ET | $50.25 | 261 | $13,113.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $52.86 | 261 | $13,796.46 | $13,819.77 |
+$682.52 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2025 12:30pm ET | $52.72 | 262 | $13,811.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2025 12:30pm ET | $51.97 | 262 | $13,614.83 | $13,623.27 |
$-196.50 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 8, 2025 11:15am ET | $51.70 | 263 | $13,597.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $53.01 | 263 | $13,941.63 | $13,967.80 |
+$344.53 (+2.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2025 12:15pm ET | $53.25 | 262 | $13,950.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 12:15pm ET | $53.34 | 262 | $13,973.87 | $13,991.48 |
+$23.68 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 3:05pm ET | $52.43 | 266 | $13,946.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $53.05 | 266 | $14,111.30 | $14,156.40 |
+$164.92 (+1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 2:25pm ET | $53.25 | 265 | $14,109.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 2:15pm ET | $51.64 | 265 | $13,684.60 | $13,731.08 |
$-425.32 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 11:15am ET | $51.34 | 267 | $13,706.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 10:00am ET | $53.91 | 267 | $14,392.64 | $14,417.27 |
+$686.19 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 10:05am ET | $53.53 | 269 | $14,398.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 10:20am ET | $56.21 | 269 | $15,119.44 | $15,138.48 |
+$721.22 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
28d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.06 | 270 | $15,134.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:10am ET | $54.34 | 270 | $14,671.80 | $14,675.43 |
$-463.05 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 12:30pm ET | $53.76 | 272 | $14,622.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $53.94 | 272 | $14,671.68 | $14,724.39 |
+$48.96 (+0.3%) |
📅 Sim Ended
26.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:55am ET | $51.99 | 283 | $14,714.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.38 | 283 | $14,256.13 | $14,265.93 |
$-458.46 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $52.18 | 273 | $14,245.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.35 | 273 | $13,745.55 | $13,766.34 |
$-499.59 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $51.24 | 268 | $13,730.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $49.66 | 268 | $13,308.88 | $13,344.24 |
$-422.10 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $49.81 | 267 | $13,297.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $48.28 | 267 | $12,892.09 | $12,938.40 |
$-405.84 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:50pm ET | $48.48 | 266 | $12,895.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.24 | 266 | $13,629.81 | $13,672.53 |
+$734.13 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 2:45pm ET | $51.40 | 266 | $13,671.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.31 | 266 | $13,648.46 | $13,649.92 |
$-22.61 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
31.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:45am ET | $50.88 | 268 | $13,634.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:45am ET | $52.29 | 268 | $14,013.72 | $14,029.14 |
+$379.22 (+2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 12:05pm ET | $53.19 | 263 | $13,987.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $55.90 | 263 | $14,700.75 | $14,742.24 |
+$713.10 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 11:10am ET | $56.22 | 262 | $14,728.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 11:10am ET | $57.76 | 262 | $15,133.12 | $15,147.03 |
+$404.79 (+2.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 11:30am ET | $57.58 | 263 | $15,142.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.73 | 263 | $15,182.99 | $15,187.43 |
+$40.40 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
31.9d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.03 | 266 | $15,169.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 10:10am ET | $55.28 | 266 | $14,703.15 | $14,720.60 |
$-466.83 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,720.60
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,720.60
Total Return:
+47.21%