Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:36:48

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
28.2 oversold
20d Trend
-17.1%
5d Trend
-11.3%
EMA20 Dist
-10.7%
ATR%
4.7%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 12.2/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 11.6

30-Day Momentum

39
+4.7%
30d Return
83%
Win Rate
6
Trades
2.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 53.0 Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+28 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,560
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$8,480.56
Current Value
$8,877.92
Period P&L
$397.41
Max Drawdown
-15.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.38

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
5 / 1
Best Trade
+4.63%
Worst Trade
-2.48%
Avg Trade Return
+0.78%
Avg Hold Time
3.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$102,571.05
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$397.41
Net P&L (after fees)
$397.41
Gross Return
+4.69%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.69%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ACN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $8,480.56 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 11:25am ET $126.46 67 $8,472.82
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 12:00pm ET $127.39 67 $8,535.13 $8,542.82 +$62.31
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 3:00pm ET $124.89 68 $8,492.86
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 3:10pm ET $125.38 68 $8,525.84 $8,575.80 +$32.98
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 2:05pm ET $132.59 64 $8,485.76
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 2:10pm ET $133.28 64 $8,529.92 $8,619.96 +$44.16
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $134.40 64 $8,601.28
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 10:50am ET $135.61 64 $8,679.04 $8,697.72 +$77.76
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 3:05pm ET $142.63 60 $8,558.10
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $139.10 60 $8,345.70 $8,485.32 $-212.40
(-2.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $130.40 65 $8,476.00
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 10:15am ET $136.44 65 $8,868.60 $8,877.92 +$392.60
(+4.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,877.92
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,122.08
Total Return: -11.22%
Back to Professor Mean