Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:11:17

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 10.6/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 10.6

30-Day Momentum

20
-2.4%
30d Return
69%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.0 Conf: 0.95×
Steady (+9 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$8,044.79
Current Value
$7,831.22
Period P&L
$-213.53
Max Drawdown
-18.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
9 / 5
Best Trade
+1.31%
Worst Trade
-4.08%
Avg Trade Return
-0.19%
Avg Hold Time
8.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$218,257.03
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-213.53
Net P&L (after fees)
$-213.53
Gross Return
-2.65%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.65%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $8,044.79 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $271.05 29 $7,860.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 11:10am ET $271.82 29 $7,882.78 $8,067.22 +$22.47
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 12:25pm ET $291.67 27 $7,875.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 2:00pm ET $292.56 27 $7,899.12 $8,091.25 +$24.03
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $291.30 27 $7,865.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET $293.20 27 $7,916.40 $8,142.55 +$51.30
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:40am ET $283.37 28 $7,934.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:50am ET $287.07 28 $8,037.96 $8,246.12 +$103.57
(+1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 12:40pm ET $285.24 28 $7,986.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 1:35pm ET $285.81 28 $8,002.68 $8,262.08 +$15.96
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 3:25pm ET $267.83 30 $8,034.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $256.90 30 $7,707.00 $7,934.18 $-327.90
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:10am ET $255.82 31 $7,930.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 12:35pm ET $255.99 31 $7,935.54 $7,939.29 +$5.11
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:30pm ET $249.51 31 $7,734.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 1:45pm ET $247.81 31 $7,682.11 $7,886.59 $-52.70
(-0.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 2:20pm ET $262.98 29 $7,626.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 3:30pm ET $263.57 29 $7,643.60 $7,903.63 +$17.04
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 3:50pm ET $258.92 30 $7,767.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $254.30 30 $7,629.15 $7,765.18 $-138.45
(-1.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $246.90 31 $7,653.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 10:25am ET $249.43 31 $7,732.33 $7,843.61 +$78.43
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 9:40am ET $247.96 31 $7,686.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 10:15am ET $248.51 31 $7,703.81 $7,860.50 +$16.89
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 1:25pm ET $239.30 32 $7,657.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 3:25pm ET $239.00 32 $7,648.00 $7,850.90 $-9.60
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 12:35pm ET $238.15 32 $7,620.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 2:25pm ET $237.54 32 $7,601.28 $7,831.22 $-19.68
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,831.22
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,168.78
Total Return: -21.69%
Back to Professor Mean