Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:44:51

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.4 neutral
20d Trend
-15.2%
5d Trend
-20.7%
EMA20 Dist
-16.9%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

29
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.8/35
Total Return
11.5/25
Win Rate
7.5/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 28.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 28.7

30-Day Momentum

42
+3.6%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 45.5 Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+13 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,924.08
Current Value
$12,308.57
Period P&L
$384.51
Max Drawdown
-28.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.23

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
8 / 5
Best Trade
+1.85%
Worst Trade
-2.37%
Avg Trade Return
+0.25%
Avg Hold Time
3.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$309,871.34
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$384.51
Net P&L (after fees)
$384.51
Gross Return
+3.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.22%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,924.08 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $459.50 25 $11,487.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET $457.89 25 $11,447.25 $11,883.81 $-40.25
(-0.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $475.04 25 $11,876.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $483.83 25 $12,095.87 $12,103.68 +$219.87
(+1.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET $473.70 25 $11,842.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 10:30am ET $478.75 25 $11,968.80 $12,229.97 +$126.29
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 11:45am ET $471.52 25 $11,787.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 12:55pm ET $471.60 25 $11,789.88 $12,231.97 +$2.00
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $457.10 26 $11,884.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET $455.12 26 $11,833.12 $12,180.62 $-51.35
(-0.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:50am ET $453.34 26 $11,786.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 10:15am ET $459.52 26 $11,947.52 $12,341.20 +$160.58
(+1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 3:05pm ET $456.34 27 $12,321.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $461.28 27 $12,454.56 $12,474.58 +$133.38
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.4h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 2:55pm ET $521.06 23 $11,984.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $508.70 23 $11,700.10 $12,190.30 $-284.28
(-2.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $485.79 25 $12,144.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET $483.48 25 $12,087.12 $12,132.80 $-57.50
(-0.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 1:10pm ET $501.11 24 $12,026.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 1:30pm ET $504.77 24 $12,114.48 $12,220.64 +$87.84
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:35pm ET $517.34 23 $11,898.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:50pm ET $513.50 23 $11,810.50 $12,132.38 $-88.26
(-0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 1:20pm ET $606.86 19 $11,530.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 2:05pm ET $609.67 19 $11,583.73 $12,185.77 +$53.39
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 10:20am ET $608.61 20 $12,172.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 11:00am ET $614.75 20 $12,295.00 $12,308.57 +$122.80
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,308.57
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,308.57
Total Return: +23.09%
Back to Professor Mean