Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:38:14

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.1 oversold
20d Trend
-18.5%
5d Trend
-17.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.4%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.2/35
Total Return
10.6/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
1.6/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 28.4/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 28.3

30-Day Momentum

17
+0.3%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 17.9 Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,738.04
Current Value
$11,660.40
Period P&L
$-77.68
Max Drawdown
-15.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
7 / 7
Best Trade
+0.85%
Worst Trade
-1.26%
Avg Trade Return
-0.05%
Avg Hold Time
3.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$326,477.46
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-77.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$-77.68
Gross Return
-0.66%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.66%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMZN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,738.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 1:20pm ET $261.93 44 $11,524.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 2:05pm ET $262.62 44 $11,555.28 $11,768.44 +$30.36
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 2:20pm ET $259.93 45 $11,696.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 2:40pm ET $260.45 45 $11,720.03 $11,791.62 +$23.18
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET $257.92 45 $11,606.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 11:05am ET $257.19 45 $11,573.55 $11,758.77 $-32.85
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $261.96 44 $11,526.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 11:00am ET $261.20 44 $11,492.80 $11,725.33 $-33.44
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:45am ET $254.54 46 $11,708.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 12:35pm ET $255.02 46 $11,730.92 $11,747.64 +$22.31
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 12:55pm ET $257.85 45 $11,603.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 1:30pm ET $258.70 45 $11,641.50 $11,785.89 +$38.25
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $256.89 45 $11,560.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 10:55am ET $256.72 45 $11,552.40 $11,778.02 $-7.87
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:15am ET $250.94 46 $11,543.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 11:50am ET $251.90 46 $11,587.17 $11,821.95 +$43.93
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:40pm ET $251.91 46 $11,587.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET $254.04 46 $11,686.07 $11,920.16 +$98.21
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $253.43 47 $11,910.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 11:10am ET $252.73 47 $11,878.15 $11,887.33 $-32.83
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 1:25pm ET $248.51 47 $11,679.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 2:15pm ET $248.91 47 $11,699.00 $11,906.36 +$19.03
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:35pm ET $246.71 48 $11,842.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $246.04 48 $11,810.16 $11,874.44 $-31.92
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $256.09 46 $11,780.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 1:05pm ET $254.64 46 $11,713.44 $11,807.74 $-66.70
(-0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.6h held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 3:45pm ET $249.08 47 $11,706.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $245.95 47 $11,559.42 $11,660.40 $-147.34
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,660.40
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,660.40
Total Return: +16.60%
Back to Professor Mean