Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:12:31

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

30
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.7/35
Total Return
10.5/25
Win Rate
7.6/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 29.8/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 29.6

30-Day Momentum

28
+0.9%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 29.7 Conf: 0.93×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,616.10
Current Value
$11,795.19
Period P&L
$179.10
Max Drawdown
-16.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
9 / 4
Best Trade
+1.33%
Worst Trade
-1.27%
Avg Trade Return
+0.12%
Avg Hold Time
2.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$300,943.67
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$179.10
Net P&L (after fees)
$179.10
Gross Return
+1.54%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.54%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,616.10 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $85.43 135 $11,533.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 12:30pm ET $85.34 135 $11,520.90 $11,603.26 $-12.83
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 1:25pm ET $87.49 132 $11,548.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 2:00pm ET $87.26 132 $11,518.32 $11,572.90 $-30.36
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $83.93 137 $11,498.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 10:35am ET $84.11 137 $11,522.39 $11,596.88 +$23.98
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 12:20pm ET $83.50 138 $11,523.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 1:40pm ET $83.61 138 $11,538.18 $11,612.06 +$15.18
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $85.84 135 $11,588.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 11:00am ET $86.17 135 $11,632.95 $11,656.61 +$44.55
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:35pm ET $86.33 135 $11,654.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 11:40am ET $85.23 135 $11,506.05 $11,508.11 $-148.50
(-1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
21.1h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 2:05pm ET $83.27 138 $11,491.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 3:50pm ET $83.30 138 $11,495.40 $11,512.25 +$4.14
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $82.70 139 $11,495.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET $83.80 139 $11,648.20 $11,665.15 +$152.90
(+1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET $84.08 138 $11,603.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 11:10am ET $83.66 138 $11,545.08 $11,607.19 $-57.96
(-0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:35pm ET $83.63 138 $11,540.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:00pm ET $83.81 138 $11,565.78 $11,632.03 +$24.84
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 12:35pm ET $90.50 128 $11,583.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 1:45pm ET $90.72 128 $11,612.16 $11,660.83 +$28.80
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET $91.45 127 $11,614.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:50am ET $91.92 127 $11,673.84 $11,720.52 +$59.69
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 9:50am ET $89.37 131 $11,707.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 10:05am ET $89.94 131 $11,782.14 $11,795.19 +$74.67
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,795.19
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,795.19
Total Return: +17.95%
Back to Professor Mean