Compendium › Professor Mean › ARM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARM
Alpaca Tradeable

Professor Mean's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-06-26 to present • 5 trades in period

-1.92%
Last Month Return
$10,795.49
Current Value
20%
Win Rate
$11,006.79
Period Start
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PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:34:19

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

20
Lifetime
Confidence: 94%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.7/35
Total Return
7.9/25
Win Rate
7.4/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 21.5/100
× Confidence 0.94 = 20.3

30-Day Momentum

2
-7.4%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (94%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,560
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,006.79
Current Value
$10,795.49
Period P&L
$-211.29
Max Drawdown
-16.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.39

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
1 / 4
Best Trade
+4.78%
Worst Trade
-5.65%
Avg Trade Return
-1.48%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$106,934.91
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-211.29
Net P&L (after fees)
$-211.29
Gross Return
-1.92%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.92%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,006.79 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 2:20pm ET $352.68 33 $11,638.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET $332.77 33 $10,981.41 $11,006.78 $-657.03
(-5.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 9:45am ET $324.53 33 $10,709.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:50am ET $324.23 33 $10,699.43 $10,996.72 $-10.06
(-0.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 3:30pm ET $355.58 30 $10,667.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET $336.45 30 $10,093.55 $10,423.02 $-573.70
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 12:15pm ET $318.09 32 $10,178.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $333.29 32 $10,665.28 $10,909.42 +$486.40
(+4.8%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
3.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $305.93 35 $10,707.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 11:55am ET $302.67 35 $10,593.62 $10,795.49 $-113.93
(-1.1%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,795.49
Net Profit/Loss: +$795.49
Total Return: +7.95%
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