Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:47:48

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
32.7 neutral
20d Trend
-13.0%
5d Trend
-6.9%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
4.0%
Range Pos
10%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

38
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
10.1/35
Total Return
13.1/25
Win Rate
7.3/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 38.6/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 38.5

30-Day Momentum

13
-3.0%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
12
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 13.8 Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-26 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$14,133.24
Current Value
$13,701.87
Period P&L
$-431.38
Max Drawdown
-12.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.19

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
6 / 6
Best Trade
+0.90%
Worst Trade
-4.14%
Avg Trade Return
-0.25%
Avg Hold Time
9.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$333,447.85
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-431.38
Net P&L (after fees)
$-431.38
Gross Return
-3.05%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.05%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVGO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $14,133.24 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 3:35pm ET $359.59 39 $14,024.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $362.84 39 $14,150.76 $14,260.00 +$126.75
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 11:50am ET $370.05 38 $14,061.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 1:35pm ET $367.01 38 $13,946.38 $14,144.48 $-115.52
(-0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $363.37 38 $13,808.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 10:40am ET $366.23 38 $13,916.74 $14,253.16 +$108.68
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 1:05pm ET $366.79 38 $13,938.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 1:25pm ET $369.19 38 $14,029.22 $14,344.36 +$91.20
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:35pm ET $353.82 40 $14,152.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 2:10pm ET $355.37 40 $14,214.80 $14,406.36 +$62.00
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 3:40pm ET $367.89 39 $14,347.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $364.48 39 $14,214.72 $14,273.57 $-132.79
(-0.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $360.20 39 $14,047.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 10:10am ET $362.98 39 $14,156.41 $14,381.99 +$108.42
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:40pm ET $364.31 39 $14,208.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $349.22 39 $13,619.58 $13,793.48 $-588.51
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 11:50am ET $339.56 40 $13,582.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 1:55pm ET $338.83 40 $13,553.20 $13,764.28 $-29.20
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:35pm ET $338.73 40 $13,549.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:45pm ET $338.61 40 $13,544.40 $13,759.48 $-4.80
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET $361.51 38 $13,737.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:45am ET $359.39 38 $13,656.82 $13,679.11 $-80.37
(-0.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 12:50pm ET $354.80 38 $13,482.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:40pm ET $355.40 38 $13,505.20 $13,701.87 +$22.76
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,701.87
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,701.87
Total Return: +37.02%
Back to Professor Mean