Compendium › Professor Mean › AXP
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AXP
Alpaca Tradeable

Professor Mean's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-23 to present • 13 trades in period

-0.12%
Last Month Return
$11,456.70
Current Value
62%
Win Rate
$11,470.47
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-06-23 14:35:50

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026

29
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.9/35
Total Return
9.8/25
Win Rate
7.8/15
Profit Factor
1.6/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 29.2/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 28.7

30-Day Momentum

18
+0.2%
30d Return
58%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 19.3 Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,543
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-26 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,470.47
Current Value
$11,456.70
Period P&L
$-13.68
Max Drawdown
-12.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
8 / 5
Best Trade
+1.03%
Worst Trade
-1.94%
Avg Trade Return
+0.05%
Avg Hold Time
15.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$288,811.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-13.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$-13.68
Gross Return
-0.12%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.12%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,470.47 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 3:50pm ET $311.79 36 $11,224.44 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $314.04 36 $11,305.44 $11,477.58 +$81.00
(+0.7%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
3.7d held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 3:50pm ET $311.67 36 $11,220.30 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 9:30am ET $310.68 36 $11,184.48 $11,441.76 $-35.82
(-0.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held
3 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 3:10pm ET $317.16 36 $11,417.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $311.01 36 $11,196.36 $11,220.36 $-221.40
(-1.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $311.40 36 $11,210.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:40am ET $313.23 36 $11,276.10 $11,286.16 +$65.80
(+0.6%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET $308.89 36 $11,120.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 12:15pm ET $303.28 36 $10,918.04 $11,083.98 $-202.18
(-1.8%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 1:05pm ET $312.90 35 $10,951.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 2:35pm ET $312.32 35 $10,931.20 $11,063.68 $-20.30
(-0.2%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 3:15pm ET $312.27 35 $10,929.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 3:55pm ET $312.86 35 $10,950.10 $11,084.50 +$20.82
(+0.2%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 9:30am ET $315.71 35 $11,049.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 9:45am ET $318.95 35 $11,163.25 $11,197.90 +$113.40
(+1.0%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 9:45am ET $312.81 35 $10,948.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 10:45am ET $312.65 35 $10,942.92 $11,192.48 $-5.42
(-0.0%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $335.49 33 $11,071.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $338.92 33 $11,184.20 $11,305.51 +$113.03
(+1.0%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET $343.89 32 $11,004.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 2:40pm ET $345.16 32 $11,045.12 $11,346.15 +$40.64
(+0.4%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $336.94 33 $11,119.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 10:00am ET $339.30 33 $11,196.90 $11,424.03 +$77.88
(+0.7%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 11:50am ET $336.64 33 $11,109.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 12:35pm ET $337.63 33 $11,141.79 $11,456.70 +$32.67
(+0.3%) 		MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,456.70
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,456.70
Total Return: +14.57%
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