Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:10:51

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
36.8 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-5.4%
EMA20 Dist
-4.3%
ATR%
2.6%
Range Pos
26%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

49
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
19.3/35
Total Return
12.1/25
Win Rate
9.5/15
Profit Factor
2.6/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 49.6/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 49.2

30-Day Momentum

10
-4.9%
30d Return
29%
Win Rate
14
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.98×
Declining (-39 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,438.64
Current Value
$12,763.44
Period P&L
$-675.16
Max Drawdown
-4.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.49

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
4 / 11
Best Trade
+1.59%
Worst Trade
-1.55%
Avg Trade Return
-0.35%
Avg Hold Time
14.4h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$373,798.61
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-675.16
Net P&L (after fees)
$-675.16
Gross Return
-5.02%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.02%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $13,438.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 12:30pm ET $1,167.51 11 $12,842.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 12:35pm ET $1,165.49 11 $12,820.44 $13,416.43 $-22.17
(-0.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,176.67 11 $12,943.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $1,173.52 11 $12,908.70 $13,381.76 $-34.67
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 1:25pm ET $1,178.86 11 $12,967.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 3:05pm ET $1,172.62 11 $12,898.82 $13,313.12 $-68.64
(-0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 3:50pm ET $1,160.35 11 $12,763.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $1,148.54 11 $12,633.94 $13,183.16 $-129.96
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $1,130.49 11 $12,435.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 10:20am ET $1,148.41 11 $12,632.51 $13,380.28 +$197.12
(+1.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:05am ET $1,126.96 11 $12,396.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 1:40pm ET $1,114.94 11 $12,264.34 $13,248.00 $-132.28
(-1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.6h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $1,117.34 11 $12,290.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET $1,114.48 11 $12,259.33 $13,216.54 $-31.46
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:35am ET $1,111.52 11 $12,226.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 11:05am ET $1,109.48 11 $12,204.24 $13,194.06 $-22.48
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 2:45pm ET $1,078.54 12 $12,942.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $1,061.81 12 $12,741.72 $12,993.30 $-200.76
(-1.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 1:15pm ET $1,085.37 11 $11,939.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET $1,075.02 11 $11,825.22 $12,879.45 $-113.85
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:45am ET $1,055.11 12 $12,661.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 11:35am ET $1,056.00 12 $12,672.00 $12,890.13 +$10.68
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:45pm ET $1,044.47 12 $12,533.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:50pm ET $1,039.42 12 $12,473.02 $12,829.51 $-60.62
(-0.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 3:40pm ET $1,056.27 12 $12,675.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $1,045.92 12 $12,550.98 $12,705.25 $-124.26
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 1:45pm ET $1,080.11 11 $11,881.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 2:25pm ET $1,084.05 11 $11,924.55 $12,748.54 +$43.29
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,067.00 11 $11,737.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:05am ET $1,068.35 11 $11,751.90 $12,763.44 +$14.90
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.2h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,763.44
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,763.44
Total Return: +27.63%
Back to Professor Mean