Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:19:21

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.5/35
Total Return
13.7/25
Win Rate
7.4/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 31.2/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 31.1

30-Day Momentum

61
+7.5%
30d Return
73%
Win Rate
15
Trades
1.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 61.0 Conf: 1.00×
Accelerating (+30 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,316.98
Current Value
$14,315.76
Period P&L
$998.81
Max Drawdown
-42.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.25

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
11 / 4
Best Trade
+6.75%
Worst Trade
-2.79%
Avg Trade Return
+0.50%
Avg Hold Time
6.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$404,164.72
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$998.81
Net P&L (after fees)
$998.81
Gross Return
+7.50%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.50%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $13,316.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 3:45pm ET $179.15 74 $13,257.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 9:35am ET $180.79 74 $13,378.46 $13,444.23 +$121.36
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $183.14 73 $13,369.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 1:25pm ET $181.45 73 $13,245.85 $13,320.86 $-123.37
(-0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 2:00pm ET $190.57 69 $13,149.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 3:00pm ET $190.93 69 $13,173.94 $13,345.47 +$24.61
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $181.00 73 $13,213.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET $178.62 73 $13,038.90 $13,171.37 $-174.10
(-1.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:35am ET $173.51 75 $13,012.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:40am ET $176.83 75 $13,262.25 $13,420.74 +$249.37
(+1.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 2:20pm ET $192.10 69 $13,255.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 3:20pm ET $192.82 69 $13,304.92 $13,470.57 +$49.83
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $180.76 74 $13,376.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 10:50am ET $180.99 74 $13,393.26 $13,487.59 +$17.02
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:20am ET $176.64 76 $13,424.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 12:00pm ET $178.95 76 $13,600.20 $13,663.15 +$175.56
(+1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 12:10pm ET $171.88 79 $13,578.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 12:55pm ET $173.17 79 $13,680.04 $13,764.67 +$101.52
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 1:35pm ET $176.61 77 $13,598.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 3:40pm ET $174.84 77 $13,462.68 $13,628.46 $-136.21
(-1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $183.85 74 $13,604.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 11:05am ET $178.72 74 $13,225.28 $13,248.84 $-379.62
(-2.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $162.58 81 $13,168.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:45pm ET $163.68 81 $13,258.48 $13,338.34 +$89.50
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $192.73 69 $13,298.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $205.73 69 $14,195.37 $14,235.34 +$897.00
(+6.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7d held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:35am ET $199.77 71 $14,183.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 11:05am ET $199.88 71 $14,191.13 $14,242.62 +$7.28
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 1:35pm ET $198.52 71 $14,094.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:40pm ET $199.55 71 $14,168.05 $14,315.76 +$73.14
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,315.76
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,315.76
Total Return: +43.16%
Back to Professor Mean