Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:39:12

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

23
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.3/35
Total Return
10.1/25
Win Rate
7.2/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 24.2/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 23.0

30-Day Momentum

51
+9.8%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
5.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 69.3 Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+28 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,560
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$10,523.07
Current Value
$11,552.26
Period P&L
$1,029.22
Max Drawdown
-42.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.76

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
4 / 2
Best Trade
+5.54%
Worst Trade
-0.59%
Avg Trade Return
+1.59%
Avg Hold Time
3.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$131,242.05
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,029.22
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,029.22
Gross Return
+9.78%
Net Return (after fees)
+9.78%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,523.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 2:45pm ET $146.60 71 $10,408.25
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 3:30pm ET $148.00 71 $10,508.00 $10,622.79 +$99.75
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET $145.78 72 $10,496.25
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET $144.92 72 $10,434.24 $10,560.78 $-62.01
(-0.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 2:40pm ET $161.64 65 $10,506.60
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET $170.60 65 $11,088.68 $11,142.86 +$582.08
(+5.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $161.28 69 $11,128.32
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:55am ET $165.04 69 $11,387.76 $11,402.30 +$259.44
(+2.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:55am ET $165.95 68 $11,284.60
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 11:10am ET $165.00 68 $11,220.00 $11,337.70 $-64.60
(-0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $156.70 72 $11,282.40
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 10:55am ET $159.68 72 $11,496.96 $11,552.26 +$214.56
(+1.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,552.26
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,552.26
Total Return: +15.52%
Back to Professor Mean