Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:22:03

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.8 oversold
20d Trend
-22.1%
5d Trend
-11.2%
EMA20 Dist
-13.2%
ATR%
4.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

36
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
9.6/35
Total Return
11.8/25
Win Rate
7.1/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 35.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 35.6

30-Day Momentum

27
+1.0%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 29.5 Conf: 0.93×
Cooling (-8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$12,383.22
Current Value
$12,503.75
Period P&L
$120.54
Max Drawdown
-9.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
8 / 4
Best Trade
+1.04%
Worst Trade
-1.21%
Avg Trade Return
+0.08%
Avg Hold Time
5.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$298,588.63
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$120.54
Net P&L (after fees)
$120.54
Gross Return
+0.97%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.97%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 CRM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,383.22 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 3:40pm ET $204.87 60 $12,292.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 3:50pm ET $205.74 60 $12,344.10 $12,435.11 +$51.90
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 11:45am ET $245.70 50 $12,285.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 12:25pm ET $248.11 50 $12,405.50 $12,555.61 +$120.50
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 3:15pm ET $259.78 48 $12,469.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 10:05am ET $258.96 48 $12,430.08 $12,516.25 $-39.36
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $260.05 48 $12,482.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 11:45am ET $260.22 48 $12,490.56 $12,524.17 +$7.92
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:25pm ET $247.35 50 $12,367.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 3:15pm ET $248.39 50 $12,419.50 $12,576.17 +$52.00
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 3:15pm ET $244.56 51 $12,472.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:45am ET $246.24 51 $12,557.99 $12,661.60 +$85.43
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 1:45pm ET $248.28 50 $12,414.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 2:35pm ET $248.57 50 $12,428.25 $12,675.84 +$14.24
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $257.13 49 $12,599.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:40am ET $259.79 49 $12,729.71 $12,806.43 +$130.59
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:40am ET $253.19 50 $12,659.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 1:05pm ET $250.52 50 $12,526.25 $12,673.18 $-133.25
(-1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.4h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 3:35pm ET $243.76 51 $12,431.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 10:50am ET $240.82 51 $12,281.82 $12,523.24 $-149.94
(-1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 2:25pm ET $237.17 52 $12,332.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 3:05pm ET $237.63 52 $12,356.51 $12,546.91 +$23.67
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 2:50pm ET $238.99 52 $12,427.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 2:55pm ET $238.16 52 $12,384.32 $12,503.75 $-43.16
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,503.75
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,503.75
Total Return: +25.04%
Back to Professor Mean