Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:18:30

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.8 oversold
20d Trend
-20.5%
5d Trend
-15.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.5%
ATR%
4.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

53
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
18.9/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
8.7/15
Profit Factor
3.0/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 52.8/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 52.6

30-Day Momentum

62
+8.6%
30d Return
64%
Win Rate
14
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 63.2 Conf: 0.98×
Steady (+9 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$15,447.85
Current Value
$16,883.51
Period P&L
$1,435.76
Max Drawdown
-12.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.22

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
10 / 5
Best Trade
+10.20%
Worst Trade
-2.84%
Avg Trade Return
+0.64%
Avg Hold Time
7.4h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$494,767.30
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,435.76
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,435.76
Gross Return
+9.29%
Net Return (after fees)
+9.29%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 CRWD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $15,447.85 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 12:10pm ET $187.10 82 $15,341.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 2:20pm ET $184.52 82 $15,130.64 $15,236.60 $-211.15
(-1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $188.75 80 $15,100.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $208.00 80 $16,640.00 $16,776.60 +$1,540.00
(+10.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET $218.86 76 $16,633.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 11:05am ET $213.95 76 $16,260.20 $16,403.14 $-373.46
(-2.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 1:55pm ET $226.49 72 $16,306.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 2:00pm ET $227.89 72 $16,408.08 $16,504.30 +$101.16
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 2:30pm ET $212.84 77 $16,388.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 3:10pm ET $214.28 77 $16,499.56 $16,615.18 +$110.88
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 1:40pm ET $212.14 78 $16,546.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 2:00pm ET $213.54 78 $16,655.73 $16,723.99 +$108.81
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $210.08 79 $16,596.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 10:55am ET $209.22 79 $16,528.38 $16,656.05 $-67.94
(-0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 12:20pm ET $207.84 80 $16,627.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 12:55pm ET $208.96 80 $16,716.80 $16,745.65 +$89.60
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET $208.01 80 $16,640.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:50am ET $210.13 80 $16,810.40 $16,915.65 +$170.00
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $235.07 71 $16,690.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $233.13 71 $16,552.23 $16,777.88 $-137.77
(-0.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $236.52 70 $16,556.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 10:05am ET $241.27 70 $16,889.25 $17,110.38 +$332.50
(+2.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 2:15pm ET $246.22 69 $16,989.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 2:50pm ET $247.14 69 $17,052.66 $17,173.86 +$63.48
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 3:50pm ET $237.60 72 $17,107.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $230.85 72 $16,621.20 $16,687.86 $-486.00
(-2.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $247.24 67 $16,564.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 10:15am ET $248.56 67 $16,653.52 $16,776.63 +$88.77
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 9:50am ET $259.00 64 $16,576.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 10:35am ET $260.67 64 $16,682.88 $16,883.51 +$106.88
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,883.51
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,883.51
Total Return: +68.84%
Back to Professor Mean