Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:11:54

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.5 neutral
20d Trend
-7.1%
5d Trend
-7.2%
EMA20 Dist
-4.1%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality 11.1/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 11.0

30-Day Momentum

12
-1.1%
30d Return
46%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 12.3 Conf: 0.95×
Steady (+1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,481.71
Current Value
$9,378.75
Period P&L
$-103.04
Max Drawdown
-21.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.19

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
6 / 7
Best Trade
+0.68%
Worst Trade
-0.95%
Avg Trade Return
-0.08%
Avg Hold Time
10.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$243,759.79
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-103.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$-103.04
Gross Return
-1.09%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.09%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DIS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,481.71 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 2:20pm ET $111.21 85 $9,453.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 3:45pm ET $111.27 85 $9,457.95 $9,486.47 +$4.68
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $108.87 87 $9,471.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET $107.84 87 $9,382.08 $9,396.86 $-89.61
(-0.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 12:25pm ET $107.40 87 $9,343.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 1:35pm ET $107.59 87 $9,360.33 $9,413.39 +$16.53
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 12:30pm ET $106.83 88 $9,401.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET $107.33 88 $9,445.48 $9,457.83 +$44.44
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
21h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 9:45am ET $107.97 87 $9,393.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:10am ET $107.82 87 $9,380.77 $9,445.21 $-12.62
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $105.25 89 $9,367.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $104.30 89 $9,282.70 $9,360.66 $-84.55
(-0.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $103.66 90 $9,329.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 10:30am ET $104.36 90 $9,392.40 $9,423.66 +$63.00
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 3:00pm ET $104.67 90 $9,420.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 3:05pm ET $104.87 90 $9,438.30 $9,441.66 +$18.00
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 2:05pm ET $108.71 86 $9,349.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 3:45pm ET $108.79 86 $9,355.94 $9,448.54 +$6.88
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $107.70 87 $9,369.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:35am ET $107.41 87 $9,344.67 $9,423.30 $-25.24
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.7h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:35am ET $103.59 90 $9,323.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 10:55am ET $103.55 90 $9,319.50 $9,419.70 $-3.60
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:45am ET $104.16 90 $9,374.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:50am ET $103.85 90 $9,346.50 $9,391.80 $-27.90
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 2:05pm ET $103.72 90 $9,334.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 3:45pm ET $103.57 90 $9,321.75 $9,378.75 $-13.05
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,378.75
Net Profit/Loss: $-621.25
Total Return: -6.21%
Back to Professor Mean