Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:33:56

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.5 oversold
20d Trend
-25.9%
5d Trend
-7.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.7%
ATR%
5.3%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

32
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.6/35
Total Return
11.4/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 32.3/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 32.1

30-Day Momentum

34
+2.2%
30d Return
69%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 36.1 Conf: 0.95×
Steady (+2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,824.54
Current Value
$12,310.47
Period P&L
$485.94
Max Drawdown
-14.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.24

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
11 / 4
Best Trade
+1.98%
Worst Trade
-2.19%
Avg Trade Return
+0.28%
Avg Hold Time
6.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$369,544.19
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$485.94
Net P&L (after fees)
$485.94
Gross Return
+4.11%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.11%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DKNG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,824.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET $25.61 461 $11,806.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 10:50am ET $25.93 461 $11,953.73 $11,972.05 +$147.52
(+1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 1:50pm ET $25.84 463 $11,966.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 2:40pm ET $25.88 463 $11,982.95 $11,988.76 +$16.71
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 10:50am ET $24.60 487 $11,982.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 11:25am ET $24.75 487 $12,050.82 $12,056.94 +$68.18
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $24.26 496 $12,032.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 10:50am ET $24.50 496 $12,152.00 $12,175.98 +$119.04
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 1:35pm ET $23.50 518 $12,173.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 2:55pm ET $23.47 518 $12,154.87 $12,157.85 $-18.13
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $24.20 502 $12,148.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $24.68 502 $12,388.96 $12,398.41 +$240.56
(+2.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $24.00 516 $12,384.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 10:30am ET $24.02 516 $12,394.32 $12,408.73 +$10.32
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $23.44 529 $12,399.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 10:45am ET $23.53 529 $12,450.01 $12,459.04 +$50.31
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:30pm ET $23.59 528 $12,455.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 1:55pm ET $23.73 528 $12,529.44 $12,532.96 +$73.92
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:45am ET $23.96 523 $12,531.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 11:00am ET $24.40 523 $12,761.20 $12,763.08 +$230.12
(+1.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $24.47 521 $12,748.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 10:45am ET $24.42 521 $12,725.42 $12,739.63 $-23.45
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 1:20pm ET $23.23 548 $12,727.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 3:25pm ET $22.75 548 $12,464.26 $12,476.59 $-263.04
(-2.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 3:40pm ET $21.93 568 $12,459.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 10:00am ET $21.99 568 $12,487.48 $12,504.99 +$28.40
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 11:35am ET $22.84 547 $12,493.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 11:40am ET $22.34 547 $12,219.98 $12,231.49 $-273.50
(-2.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $20.89 585 $12,220.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 10:30am ET $21.02 585 $12,299.62 $12,310.47 +$78.98
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,310.47
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,310.47
Total Return: +23.10%
Back to Professor Mean