Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:09:05

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
43.2 neutral
20d Trend
-4.5%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-2.7%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
74%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

30
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.5/35
Total Return
10.2/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 30.1/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 30.0

30-Day Momentum

9
-2.1%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.87×
Declining (-21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,812.07
Current Value
$11,489.72
Period P&L
$-322.37
Max Drawdown
-9.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.34

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
4 / 7
Best Trade
+1.09%
Worst Trade
-1.76%
Avg Trade Return
-0.25%
Avg Hold Time
8.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$255,013.11
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-322.37
Net P&L (after fees)
$-322.37
Gross Return
-2.73%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.73%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 GOOGL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,812.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $345.13 34 $11,734.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 11:05am ET $343.33 34 $11,673.22 $11,751.06 $-61.03
(-0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 3:40pm ET $340.36 34 $11,572.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 3:45pm ET $340.72 34 $11,584.48 $11,763.13 +$12.07
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $342.74 34 $11,653.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:35am ET $341.72 34 $11,618.48 $11,728.46 $-34.67
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET $334.77 35 $11,716.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 11:15am ET $336.40 35 $11,774.00 $11,785.51 +$57.05
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET $341.56 34 $11,613.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 12:00pm ET $338.12 34 $11,496.08 $11,668.55 $-116.96
(-1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.4h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $331.05 35 $11,586.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 11:50am ET $329.78 35 $11,542.30 $11,624.27 $-44.28
(-0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:15pm ET $339.49 34 $11,542.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $343.20 34 $11,668.80 $11,750.41 +$126.14
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:55pm ET $344.51 34 $11,713.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:05pm ET $346.20 34 $11,770.63 $11,807.72 +$57.31
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 3:50pm ET $349.99 33 $11,549.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $348.81 33 $11,510.73 $11,768.78 $-38.94
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 11:05am ET $358.78 32 $11,480.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 1:25pm ET $352.45 32 $11,278.40 $11,566.22 $-202.56
(-1.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 3:35pm ET $338.38 34 $11,504.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $336.13 34 $11,428.25 $11,489.72 $-76.50
(-0.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.9h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,489.72
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,489.72
Total Return: +14.90%
Back to Professor Mean