Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:18:15

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
36.7 neutral
20d Trend
-7.0%
5d Trend
-5.4%
EMA20 Dist
-4.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
59%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

59
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
28.8/35
Total Return
13.5/25
Win Rate
7.1/15
Profit Factor
3.4/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 59.2/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 59.0

30-Day Momentum

10
-4.3%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.95×
Declining (-49 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$14,732.11
Current Value
$14,143.82
Period P&L
$-588.32
Max Drawdown
-3.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.25

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
7 / 8
Best Trade
+1.56%
Worst Trade
-3.27%
Avg Trade Return
-0.28%
Avg Hold Time
6.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$421,027.97
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-588.32
Net P&L (after fees)
$-588.32
Gross Return
-3.99%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.99%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 GS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $14,732.11 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 10:00am ET $1,032.60 14 $14,456.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 11:25am ET $1,034.44 14 $14,482.16 $14,757.90 +$25.76
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $1,050.00 14 $14,700.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 11:00am ET $1,046.94 14 $14,657.17 $14,715.07 $-42.83
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 1:25pm ET $1,040.99 14 $14,573.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 3:10pm ET $1,038.53 14 $14,539.42 $14,680.63 $-34.44
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $1,028.36 14 $14,397.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 11:20am ET $1,025.27 14 $14,353.78 $14,637.37 $-43.26
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 12:20pm ET $1,015.92 14 $14,222.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 12:25pm ET $1,012.58 14 $14,176.12 $14,590.61 $-46.76
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 2:05pm ET $1,032.10 14 $14,449.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 3:00pm ET $1,034.69 14 $14,485.73 $14,626.94 +$36.33
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 10:05am ET $1,033.50 14 $14,469.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 10:55am ET $1,035.94 14 $14,503.16 $14,661.10 +$34.16
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $1,022.04 14 $14,308.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 10:25am ET $1,026.27 14 $14,367.71 $14,720.31 +$59.21
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:35pm ET $1,030.10 14 $14,421.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 3:50pm ET $1,029.76 14 $14,416.64 $14,715.55 $-4.76
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $983.18 14 $13,764.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 12:30pm ET $959.68 14 $13,435.52 $14,386.55 $-329.00
(-2.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:30pm ET $968.02 14 $13,552.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 10:15am ET $936.38 14 $13,109.32 $13,943.59 $-442.96
(-3.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19.8h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 3:25pm ET $940.84 14 $13,171.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $955.55 14 $13,377.70 $14,149.53 +$205.94
(+1.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET $955.07 14 $13,370.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:45am ET $950.93 14 $13,313.02 $14,091.60 $-57.93
(-0.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 11:25am ET $939.87 14 $13,158.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 12:25pm ET $941.65 14 $13,183.10 $14,116.52 +$24.92
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 2:40pm ET $919.47 15 $13,791.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 2:50pm ET $921.28 15 $13,819.27 $14,143.82 +$27.30
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,143.82
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,143.82
Total Return: +41.44%
Back to Professor Mean