Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:38:17

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.3 oversold
20d Trend
-41.6%
5d Trend
-28.6%
EMA20 Dist
-26.6%
ATR%
7.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

34
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.2/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
8.4/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 34.1/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 33.9

30-Day Momentum

40
+4.0%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 42.9 Conf: 0.93×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,361.06
Current Value
$14,004.25
Period P&L
$643.12
Max Drawdown
-26.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.27

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
9 / 4
Best Trade
+3.11%
Worst Trade
-2.05%
Avg Trade Return
+0.37%
Avg Hold Time
8.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$346,977.91
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$643.12
Net P&L (after fees)
$643.12
Gross Return
+4.81%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.81%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HOOD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $13,361.06 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $110.17 121 $13,330.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 10:30am ET $110.79 121 $13,405.59 $13,436.15 +$75.02
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 12:35pm ET $110.69 121 $13,393.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 2:55pm ET $110.15 121 $13,328.16 $13,370.33 $-65.82
(-0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 3:50pm ET $104.39 128 $13,361.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $102.25 128 $13,087.36 $13,095.77 $-274.56
(-2.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 12:05pm ET $105.41 124 $13,070.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 3:15pm ET $103.47 124 $12,830.28 $12,855.21 $-240.56
(-1.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.2h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $121.00 106 $12,826.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 10:35am ET $122.49 106 $12,983.94 $13,013.15 +$157.94
(+1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:40pm ET $119.65 108 $12,922.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $120.81 108 $13,046.94 $13,137.89 +$124.74
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $112.50 116 $13,050.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 10:05am ET $116.00 116 $13,456.00 $13,543.89 +$406.00
(+3.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 11:55am ET $112.94 119 $13,439.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 1:25pm ET $113.25 119 $13,477.34 $13,581.37 +$37.48
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $111.50 121 $13,491.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 11:00am ET $110.18 121 $13,331.77 $13,421.64 $-159.73
(-1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $103.55 129 $13,357.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:50pm ET $104.29 129 $13,453.41 $13,517.10 +$95.46
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $123.56 109 $13,468.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $124.59 109 $13,580.31 $13,629.37 +$112.27
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET $122.77 111 $13,627.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:40am ET $125.11 111 $13,887.21 $13,889.11 +$259.74
(+1.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 9:40am ET $121.29 114 $13,827.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 10:25am ET $122.30 114 $13,942.20 $14,004.25 +$115.14
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,004.25
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,004.25
Total Return: +40.04%
Back to Professor Mean