Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:59:05

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.5/35
Total Return
9.2/25
Win Rate
7.9/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 27.8/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 27.7

30-Day Momentum

49
+3.8%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
12
Trades
2.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 52.8 Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$10,797.04
Current Value
$11,190.14
Period P&L
$393.15
Max Drawdown
-9.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.32

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
10 / 4
Best Trade
+1.53%
Worst Trade
-1.59%
Avg Trade Return
+0.26%
Avg Hold Time
2.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$305,984.25
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$393.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$393.15
Gross Return
+3.64%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.64%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $10,797.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $232.79 46 $10,708.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET $232.36 46 $10,688.56 $10,777.21 $-19.78
(-0.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $230.68 46 $10,611.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $233.91 46 $10,759.86 $10,925.79 +$148.58
(+1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 12:15pm ET $235.38 46 $10,827.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 1:35pm ET $235.93 46 $10,852.78 $10,951.09 +$25.30
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 3:50pm ET $234.17 46 $10,771.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $231.80 46 $10,662.87 $10,842.14 $-108.95
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:35am ET $229.33 47 $10,778.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:50am ET $231.03 47 $10,858.53 $10,922.16 +$80.02
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 1:00pm ET $234.53 46 $10,788.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 2:15pm ET $234.37 46 $10,780.79 $10,914.57 $-7.59
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $231.72 47 $10,890.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 10:50am ET $232.22 47 $10,914.34 $10,938.07 +$23.50
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET $235.52 46 $10,834.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:45am ET $239.12 46 $10,999.52 $11,103.44 +$165.37
(+1.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $246.20 45 $11,079.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 10:00am ET $249.38 45 $11,222.10 $11,246.54 +$143.10
(+1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:40pm ET $239.75 46 $11,028.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:10pm ET $240.70 46 $11,072.20 $11,290.24 +$43.70
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:35am ET $234.15 48 $11,238.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 11:35am ET $230.42 48 $11,060.16 $11,111.44 $-178.80
(-1.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 11:35am ET $230.69 48 $11,073.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 12:25pm ET $231.50 48 $11,112.00 $11,150.32 +$38.88
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 12:35pm ET $234.70 47 $11,030.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:45pm ET $235.37 47 $11,062.39 $11,181.81 +$31.49
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 2:00pm ET $227.23 49 $11,134.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 3:50pm ET $227.40 49 $11,142.60 $11,190.14 +$8.33
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,190.14
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,190.14
Total Return: +11.90%
Back to Professor Mean