Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:00:49

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

30
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.7/35
Total Return
10.6/25
Win Rate
8.4/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 29.9/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 29.7

30-Day Momentum

32
+1.0%
30d Return
73%
Win Rate
15
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 32.3 Conf: 1.00×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,673.90
Current Value
$11,795.62
Period P&L
$121.70
Max Drawdown
-17.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
11 / 4
Best Trade
+0.90%
Worst Trade
-1.54%
Avg Trade Return
+0.07%
Avg Hold Time
3.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$347,332.51
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$121.70
Net P&L (after fees)
$121.70
Gross Return
+1.04%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.04%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,673.90 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $373.55 31 $11,580.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 9:35am ET $375.92 31 $11,653.52 $11,747.39 +$73.47
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:40am ET $369.64 31 $11,458.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:45am ET $370.95 31 $11,499.30 $11,787.69 +$40.30
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 10:05am ET $368.05 32 $11,777.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 11:05am ET $369.34 32 $11,818.88 $11,829.03 +$41.34
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 12:25pm ET $370.75 31 $11,493.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 1:10pm ET $371.43 31 $11,514.33 $11,850.11 +$21.08
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $373.23 31 $11,570.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:50am ET $367.49 31 $11,392.19 $11,672.17 $-177.94
(-1.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 12:20pm ET $376.32 31 $11,665.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 3:00pm ET $371.44 31 $11,514.64 $11,520.89 $-151.28
(-1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 3:05pm ET $369.61 31 $11,457.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 3:20pm ET $370.97 31 $11,500.07 $11,563.05 +$42.16
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $359.80 32 $11,513.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:35am ET $359.23 32 $11,495.36 $11,544.81 $-18.24
(-0.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $349.96 32 $11,198.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:45am ET $353.13 32 $11,300.00 $11,645.93 +$101.12
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 2:20pm ET $374.09 31 $11,596.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 2:30pm ET $376.10 31 $11,659.10 $11,708.24 +$62.31
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 3:20pm ET $376.33 31 $11,666.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $378.10 31 $11,721.10 $11,763.00 +$54.76
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.2h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 10:25am ET $378.59 31 $11,736.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 11:35am ET $379.68 31 $11,770.16 $11,796.87 +$33.87
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 2:05pm ET $390.88 30 $11,726.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 2:25pm ET $392.39 30 $11,771.55 $11,842.02 +$45.15
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $399.27 29 $11,578.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 10:50am ET $399.83 29 $11,595.21 $11,858.55 +$16.53
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 10:50am ET $399.47 29 $11,584.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 2:35pm ET $397.30 29 $11,521.70 $11,795.62 $-62.93
(-0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,795.62
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,795.62
Total Return: +17.96%
Back to Professor Mean