Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:37:32

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
88.4 overbought
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+5.8%
EMA20 Dist
+6.5%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
98%
Bounce Ratio
40.5×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

46
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
15.3/35
Total Return
11.7/25
Win Rate
9.5/15
Profit Factor
4.4/15
Consistency
7.4/10
Raw Quality 48.2/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 45.9

30-Day Momentum

6
-0.3%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.0 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-40 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,560
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$12,747.21
Current Value
$12,470.62
Period P&L
$-276.55
Max Drawdown
-5.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
3 / 3
Best Trade
+1.94%
Worst Trade
-1.68%
Avg Trade Return
-0.04%
Avg Hold Time
6.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$149,767.10
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-276.55
Net P&L (after fees)
$-276.55
Gross Return
-2.17%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.17%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 JNJ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,747.21 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $244.97 51 $12,493.47
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET $249.72 51 $12,735.72 $12,747.17 +$242.25
(+1.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:50am ET $256.43 49 $12,565.07
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 9:55am ET $255.56 49 $12,522.44 $12,704.54 $-42.63
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $261.11 48 $12,533.04
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 10:55am ET $258.40 48 $12,403.20 $12,574.70 $-129.84
(-1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 1:40pm ET $265.12 47 $12,460.64
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 2:30pm ET $266.39 47 $12,520.10 $12,634.15 +$59.45
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 3:25pm ET $265.12 47 $12,460.64
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $260.65 47 $12,250.78 $12,424.30 $-209.85
(-1.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 9:35am ET $258.08 48 $12,387.84
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:40am ET $259.05 48 $12,434.16 $12,470.62 +$46.32
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,470.62
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,470.62
Total Return: +24.71%
Back to Professor Mean