Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:51:49

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

14
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 14.1/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 14.0

30-Day Momentum

19
+0.9%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
15
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.9 Conf: 1.00×
Steady (+5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,174.91
Current Value
$9,272.33
Period P&L
$97.43
Max Drawdown
-24.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
17
Winners / Losers
7 / 10
Best Trade
+1.75%
Worst Trade
-1.75%
Avg Trade Return
-0.03%
Avg Hold Time
9.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$299,457.66
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$97.43
Net P&L (after fees)
$97.43
Gross Return
+1.06%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.06%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 17 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,174.91 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:40pm ET $1,257.72 7 $8,804.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $1,235.73 7 $8,650.14 $9,174.89 $-153.91
(-1.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 1:15pm ET $1,249.27 7 $8,744.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 2:35pm ET $1,239.85 7 $8,678.93 $9,108.94 $-65.96
(-0.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,187.96 7 $8,315.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 10:40am ET $1,187.35 7 $8,311.45 $9,104.67 $-4.27
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 11:55am ET $1,168.81 7 $8,181.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 2:05pm ET $1,168.58 7 $8,180.09 $9,103.06 $-1.61
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 2:30pm ET $1,153.38 7 $8,073.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 3:00pm ET $1,157.51 7 $8,102.57 $9,131.97 +$28.91
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 3:00pm ET $1,159.76 7 $8,118.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET $1,172.00 7 $8,204.00 $9,217.65 +$85.68
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.5h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $1,151.90 8 $9,215.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET $1,148.67 8 $9,189.36 $9,191.85 $-25.80
(-0.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET $1,148.83 8 $9,190.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 11:40am ET $1,144.99 8 $9,159.92 $9,161.09 $-30.76
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.1h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:20pm ET $1,125.47 8 $9,003.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 3:40pm ET $1,124.85 8 $8,998.80 $9,156.13 $-4.96
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 12:25pm ET $1,124.13 8 $8,993.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 1:00pm ET $1,127.31 8 $9,018.48 $9,181.61 +$25.48
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:05pm ET $1,119.00 8 $8,952.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 3:20pm ET $1,118.30 8 $8,946.40 $9,176.01 $-5.60
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,136.94 8 $9,095.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $1,156.89 8 $9,255.08 $9,335.61 +$159.60
(+1.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $1,134.87 8 $9,078.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,138.66 8 $9,109.24 $9,365.89 +$30.28
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 12:20pm ET $1,140.88 8 $9,127.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 12:50pm ET $1,145.54 8 $9,164.32 $9,403.17 +$37.28
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 3:20pm ET $1,161.90 8 $9,295.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $1,150.10 8 $9,200.80 $9,308.77 $-94.40
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.2h held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:55am ET $1,157.72 8 $9,261.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:40pm ET $1,151.28 8 $9,210.24 $9,257.21 $-51.56
(-0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.8h held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 2:55pm ET $1,186.52 7 $8,305.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 3:10pm ET $1,188.68 7 $8,320.76 $9,272.33 +$15.12
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,272.33
Net Profit/Loss: $-727.67
Total Return: -7.28%
Back to Professor Mean