Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:35:10

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 14.1/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 13.4

30-Day Momentum

11
-1.6%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 14.3 Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,560
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,165.18
Current Value
$9,013.64
Period P&L
$-151.51
Max Drawdown
-24.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.31

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
4 / 2
Best Trade
+0.58%
Worst Trade
-2.29%
Avg Trade Return
-0.30%
Avg Hold Time
46m

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$101,681.19
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-151.51
Net P&L (after fees)
$-151.51
Gross Return
-1.65%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.65%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,165.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 11:05am ET $1,206.47 7 $8,445.29
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 12:05pm ET $1,213.50 7 $8,494.50 $9,214.37 +$49.21
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 3:30pm ET $1,206.19 7 $8,443.36
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,199.38 7 $8,395.66 $9,166.66 $-47.70
(-0.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:40am ET $1,199.62 7 $8,397.34
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 10:20am ET $1,201.94 7 $8,413.58 $9,182.90 +$16.24
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 12:00pm ET $1,230.67 7 $8,614.69
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 1:30pm ET $1,231.31 7 $8,619.17 $9,187.38 +$4.48
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 1:30pm ET $1,222.24 7 $8,555.68
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 2:25pm ET $1,225.15 7 $8,576.05 $9,207.75 +$20.37
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $1,208.57 7 $8,459.99
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:35am ET $1,180.84 7 $8,265.88 $9,013.64 $-194.11
(-2.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,013.64
Net Profit/Loss: $-986.36
Total Return: -9.86%
Back to Professor Mean