Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 20:20:06

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.18%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
49.4 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
+1.5%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
2.3%
Range Pos
39%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026

32
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.1/35
Total Return
9.2/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 31.9/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 31.8

30-Day Momentum

20
-1.2%
30d Return
69%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.0 Conf: 0.95×
Declining (-12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,272.81
Current Value
$11,188.17
Period P&L
$-84.62
Max Drawdown
-5.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
11 / 4
Best Trade
+0.71%
Worst Trade
-1.52%
Avg Trade Return
-0.05%
Avg Hold Time
12.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$326,653.85
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-84.62
Net P&L (after fees)
$-84.62
Gross Return
-0.75%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.75%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,272.81 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 3:25pm ET $597.37 18 $10,752.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $599.29 18 $10,787.22 $11,307.36 +$34.56
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $593.06 19 $11,268.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 10:55am ET $592.13 19 $11,250.38 $11,289.60 $-17.76
(-0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 3:55pm ET $594.62 18 $10,703.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $590.24 18 $10,624.41 $11,210.85 $-78.75
(-0.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:45am ET $587.53 19 $11,162.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 10:10am ET $590.86 19 $11,226.34 $11,274.22 +$63.37
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 9:45am ET $586.16 19 $11,137.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:15am ET $586.74 19 $11,148.15 $11,285.33 +$11.12
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:40pm ET $581.32 19 $11,045.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $572.50 19 $10,877.50 $11,117.75 $-167.58
(-1.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET $566.28 19 $10,759.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 11:00am ET $567.73 19 $10,786.96 $11,145.49 +$27.74
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:30pm ET $564.06 19 $10,717.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 2:50pm ET $564.56 19 $10,726.64 $11,154.99 +$9.50
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 2:50pm ET $572.03 19 $10,868.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:40am ET $573.29 19 $10,892.51 $11,178.93 +$23.94
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:40am ET $568.26 19 $10,796.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:55am ET $572.30 19 $10,873.79 $11,255.88 +$76.95
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:55am ET $564.55 19 $10,726.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 11:20am ET $565.70 19 $10,748.30 $11,277.64 +$21.76
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 1:40pm ET $565.32 19 $10,740.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 2:45pm ET $566.74 19 $10,768.15 $11,304.81 +$27.17
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:50am ET $564.35 20 $11,287.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 12:20pm ET $557.24 20 $11,144.80 $11,162.61 $-142.20
(-1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.5h held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 1:20pm ET $559.58 19 $10,632.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:55pm ET $560.21 19 $10,643.99 $11,174.58 +$11.97
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 25, 2026 3:05pm ET $566.94 19 $10,771.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $567.66 19 $10,785.45 $11,188.17 +$13.59
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,188.17
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,188.17
Total Return: +11.88%
Back to Professor Mean