Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:26:28

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

34
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.5/35
Total Return
13.9/25
Win Rate
8.5/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality 33.9/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 33.7

30-Day Momentum

19
-6.2%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 20.0 Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$15,625.26
Current Value
$14,764.43
Period P&L
$-860.80
Max Drawdown
-29.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
9 / 4
Best Trade
+2.07%
Worst Trade
-8.15%
Avg Trade Return
-0.40%
Avg Hold Time
11.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$392,327.33
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-860.80
Net P&L (after fees)
$-860.80
Gross Return
-5.51%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.51%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $15,625.26 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 3:40pm ET $11.16 1,400 $15,624.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 9:55am ET $11.28 1,400 $15,799.00 $15,800.23 +$175.00
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 3:35pm ET $11.91 1,326 $15,792.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $11.58 1,326 $15,355.08 $15,362.78 $-437.45
(-2.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.9h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:35am ET $10.51 1,462 $15,358.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 11:05am ET $10.45 1,462 $15,285.21 $15,289.68 $-73.10
(-0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.5h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 12:20pm ET $10.27 1,488 $15,281.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 1:40pm ET $10.31 1,488 $15,333.84 $15,341.76 +$52.08
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $11.27 1,361 $15,338.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 11:25am ET $11.32 1,361 $15,400.26 $15,403.55 +$61.79
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 3:40pm ET $11.81 1,303 $15,394.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $12.06 1,303 $15,714.18 $15,722.79 +$319.24
(+2.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $11.62 1,353 $15,721.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 10:30am ET $11.57 1,353 $15,660.97 $15,661.90 $-60.89
(-0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:05pm ET $12.02 1,302 $15,650.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $11.04 1,302 $14,374.08 $14,385.81 $-1,276.09
(-8.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $11.27 1,277 $14,385.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 11:20am ET $11.30 1,277 $14,423.72 $14,424.12 +$38.31
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 12:10pm ET $11.23 1,284 $14,412.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 1:30pm ET $11.26 1,284 $14,451.42 $14,462.64 +$38.52
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 3:25pm ET $13.35 1,083 $14,458.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:35am ET $13.41 1,083 $14,527.15 $14,531.74 +$69.10
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.2h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:35am ET $13.43 1,082 $14,531.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:45am ET $13.54 1,082 $14,648.77 $14,649.24 +$117.50
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 1:55pm ET $12.89 1,136 $14,644.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 2:10pm ET $12.99 1,136 $14,759.59 $14,764.43 +$115.19
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,764.43
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,764.43
Total Return: +47.64%
Back to Professor Mean