Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:37:23

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.8/35
Total Return
13.5/25
Win Rate
8.2/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 32.6/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 31.0

30-Day Momentum

38
+3.1%
30d Return
83%
Win Rate
6
Trades
2.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 51.1 Conf: 0.74×
Steady (+7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,560
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,648.06
Current Value
$14,070.65
Period P&L
$422.62
Max Drawdown
-29.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.57

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
5 / 1
Best Trade
+1.49%
Worst Trade
-1.18%
Avg Trade Return
+0.51%
Avg Hold Time
1.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$164,838.74
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$422.62
Net P&L (after fees)
$422.62
Gross Return
+3.10%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.10%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $13,648.06 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 9:50am ET $14.07 969 $13,638.67
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 11:25am ET $13.91 969 $13,478.11 $13,487.47 $-160.56
(-1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 12:15pm ET $13.41 1,005 $13,477.15
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 12:50pm ET $13.61 1,005 $13,678.05 $13,688.37 +$200.90
(+1.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 2:05pm ET $13.64 1,003 $13,675.91
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 3:05pm ET $13.73 1,003 $13,771.29 $13,783.75 +$95.38
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 2:20pm ET $12.94 1,064 $13,773.48
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 3:25pm ET $12.95 1,064 $13,784.12 $13,794.39 +$10.64
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $11.73 1,175 $13,782.75
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 12:10pm ET $11.80 1,175 $13,859.13 $13,870.77 +$76.38
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 2:00pm ET $13.18 1,052 $13,860.10
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 2:40pm ET $13.36 1,052 $14,059.98 $14,070.65 +$199.88
(+1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,070.65
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,070.65
Total Return: +40.71%
Back to Professor Mean