Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:24:56

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

46
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
15.3/35
Total Return
12.9/25
Win Rate
8.6/15
Profit Factor
3.7/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 46.2/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 46.0

30-Day Momentum

14
-1.3%
30d Return
54%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.2 Conf: 0.95×
Declining (-32 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,661.00
Current Value
$13,484.66
Period P&L
$-176.35
Max Drawdown
-8.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
7 / 6
Best Trade
+1.17%
Worst Trade
-1.93%
Avg Trade Return
-0.10%
Avg Hold Time
5.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$357,568.00
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-176.35
Net P&L (after fees)
$-176.35
Gross Return
-1.29%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.29%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $13,661.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $154.55 88 $13,600.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 10:40am ET $154.88 88 $13,629.88 $13,690.48 +$29.48
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 1:05pm ET $150.83 90 $13,574.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 1:35pm ET $151.13 90 $13,601.70 $13,717.48 +$27.00
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $146.10 93 $13,587.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 10:10am ET $147.80 93 $13,745.86 $13,876.04 +$158.56
(+1.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 12:20pm ET $148.73 93 $13,831.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 1:05pm ET $149.10 93 $13,866.76 $13,911.38 +$35.34
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET $150.51 92 $13,846.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:40am ET $149.85 92 $13,786.66 $13,851.18 $-60.21
(-0.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:50am ET $150.52 92 $13,847.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 11:15am ET $150.91 92 $13,883.83 $13,887.17 +$35.99
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 10:25am ET $147.75 93 $13,740.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 11:50am ET $147.64 93 $13,730.52 $13,876.94 $-10.23
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 3:50pm ET $144.54 96 $13,875.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET $145.45 96 $13,963.20 $13,964.30 +$87.36
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 2:55pm ET $144.95 96 $13,915.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 10:35am ET $143.54 96 $13,779.84 $13,828.94 $-135.36
(-1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19.7h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $143.93 96 $13,817.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:40pm ET $144.32 96 $13,854.72 $13,865.90 +$36.96
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:45am ET $146.58 94 $13,778.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 10:55am ET $146.51 94 $13,772.41 $13,859.79 $-6.11
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 3:50pm ET $149.74 92 $13,776.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $148.54 92 $13,665.68 $13,749.02 $-110.77
(-0.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:45am ET $150.32 91 $13,679.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:10pm ET $147.41 91 $13,414.76 $13,484.66 $-264.36
(-1.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,484.66
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,484.66
Total Return: +34.85%
Back to Professor Mean