Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:10:19

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

41
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.8/35
Total Return
12.7/25
Win Rate
7.9/15
Profit Factor
2.8/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 41.5/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 41.3

30-Day Momentum

12
-0.6%
30d Return
46%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 12.3 Conf: 0.95×
Declining (-30 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,375.09
Current Value
$13,297.84
Period P&L
$-77.30
Max Drawdown
-9.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
7 / 8
Best Trade
+1.27%
Worst Trade
-1.41%
Avg Trade Return
-0.04%
Avg Hold Time
10.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$397,505.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-77.30
Net P&L (after fees)
$-77.30
Gross Return
-0.58%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.58%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $13,375.09 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 12:20pm ET $214.81 62 $13,318.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 12:30pm ET $214.40 62 $13,292.73 $13,349.71 $-25.43
(-0.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $214.67 62 $13,309.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 11:25am ET $213.20 62 $13,218.09 $13,258.26 $-91.45
(-0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 1:35pm ET $214.76 61 $13,100.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 3:15pm ET $214.58 61 $13,089.38 $13,247.58 $-10.68
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 3:55pm ET $214.26 61 $13,070.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $213.80 61 $13,042.10 $13,219.67 $-27.91
(-0.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $210.63 62 $13,059.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 10:05am ET $213.30 62 $13,224.91 $13,385.52 +$165.85
(+1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $215.58 62 $13,365.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET $217.21 62 $13,467.33 $13,486.95 +$101.43
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
5m held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 10:10am ET $215.83 62 $13,381.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 10:55am ET $216.57 62 $13,427.65 $13,533.14 +$46.19
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $213.61 63 $13,457.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:45am ET $215.82 63 $13,596.35 $13,672.06 +$138.92
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 3:45pm ET $214.13 63 $13,490.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $211.97 63 $13,354.11 $13,535.98 $-136.08
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $205.84 65 $13,379.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 11:25am ET $203.03 65 $13,196.95 $13,353.33 $-182.65
(-1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.9h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:40pm ET $206.25 64 $13,200.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $203.34 64 $13,013.76 $13,167.09 $-186.24
(-1.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $202.10 65 $13,136.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 10:30am ET $202.92 65 $13,189.80 $13,220.39 +$53.30
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $205.31 64 $13,139.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET $204.38 64 $13,080.32 $13,160.83 $-59.56
(-0.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:45am ET $198.88 66 $13,125.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:10am ET $200.58 66 $13,238.28 $13,273.36 +$112.53
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 11:10am ET $194.97 68 $13,257.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 12:00pm ET $195.33 68 $13,282.44 $13,297.84 +$24.48
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,297.84
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,297.84
Total Return: +32.98%
Back to Professor Mean