Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:27:37

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

34
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.6/35
Total Return
13.2/25
Win Rate
8.1/15
Profit Factor
1.7/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 35.0/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 34.2

30-Day Momentum

65
+7.9%
30d Return
80%
Win Rate
10
Trades
8.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 74.1 Conf: 0.87×
Accelerating (+30 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$12,776.58
Current Value
$13,782.33
Period P&L
$1,005.71
Max Drawdown
-23.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.76

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
8 / 2
Best Trade
+3.25%
Worst Trade
-0.41%
Avg Trade Return
+0.80%
Avg Hold Time
4.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$254,863.28
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,005.71
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,005.71
Gross Return
+7.87%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.87%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $12,776.58 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 2:00pm ET $921.78 13 $11,983.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 2:35pm ET $925.63 13 $12,033.19 $12,826.61 +$49.99
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 3:45pm ET $937.28 13 $12,184.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $967.78 13 $12,581.14 $13,223.05 +$396.44
(+3.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 11:50am ET $926.09 14 $12,965.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 1:15pm ET $922.32 14 $12,912.41 $13,170.20 $-52.85
(-0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 2:40pm ET $944.29 13 $12,275.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 3:20pm ET $945.49 13 $12,291.37 $13,185.85 +$15.65
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $927.97 14 $12,991.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 10:55am ET $947.53 14 $13,265.42 $13,459.69 +$273.84
(+2.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:55pm ET $1,013.08 13 $13,170.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:45am ET $1,010.00 13 $13,130.00 $13,419.65 $-40.04
(-0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $973.77 13 $12,658.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 1:05pm ET $981.33 13 $12,757.29 $13,518.00 +$98.35
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $909.68 14 $12,735.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 11:10am ET $914.29 14 $12,800.13 $13,582.61 +$64.61
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.7h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:35pm ET $923.80 14 $12,933.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:45pm ET $932.52 14 $13,055.28 $13,704.69 +$122.08
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:50am ET $1,085.89 12 $13,030.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:00am ET $1,092.35 12 $13,108.26 $13,782.33 +$77.64
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,782.33
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,782.33
Total Return: +37.82%
Back to Professor Mean