Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:03:58

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.2 neutral
20d Trend
-10.9%
5d Trend
-5.8%
EMA20 Dist
-5.4%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

30
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.5/35
Total Return
10.5/25
Win Rate
8.1/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 29.7/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 29.5

30-Day Momentum

27
+0.4%
30d Return
73%
Win Rate
15
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 26.6 Conf: 1.00×
Cooling (-3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,735.20
Current Value
$11,735.63
Period P&L
$0.40
Max Drawdown
-13.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
11 / 4
Best Trade
+0.98%
Worst Trade
-1.53%
Avg Trade Return
+0.03%
Avg Hold Time
8.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$351,275.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$0.40
Net P&L (after fees)
$0.40
Gross Return
+0.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.00%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NFLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $11,735.20 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 3:20pm ET $80.22 145 $11,631.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET $80.54 145 $11,677.58 $11,735.23 +$45.68
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
18.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:40am ET $81.76 143 $11,691.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 10:20am ET $82.12 143 $11,743.16 $11,786.71 +$51.48
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 12:35pm ET $79.53 148 $11,769.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 12:55pm ET $79.82 148 $11,812.62 $11,829.63 +$42.92
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $81.00 146 $11,826.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 10:55am ET $81.30 146 $11,869.80 $11,873.43 +$43.80
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 2:05pm ET $80.81 146 $11,797.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 2:50pm ET $80.95 146 $11,818.70 $11,894.60 +$21.17
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 12:30pm ET $82.09 144 $11,820.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 1:00pm ET $82.35 144 $11,858.40 $11,932.04 +$37.44
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 3:30pm ET $78.68 151 $11,879.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $77.47 151 $11,697.97 $11,750.08 $-181.96
(-1.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $76.45 153 $11,696.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 10:05am ET $76.65 153 $11,728.21 $11,781.45 +$31.37
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 3:00pm ET $75.82 155 $11,751.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 3:40pm ET $75.94 155 $11,771.47 $11,800.93 +$19.48
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 3:15pm ET $80.38 146 $11,735.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $79.28 146 $11,574.88 $11,639.96 $-160.97
(-1.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $77.72 149 $11,580.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 10:45am ET $77.62 149 $11,565.38 $11,625.06 $-14.90
(-0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 1:25pm ET $75.57 153 $11,562.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 1:50pm ET $75.68 153 $11,579.04 $11,641.89 +$16.83
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 2:20pm ET $71.64 162 $11,604.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 2:50pm ET $71.86 162 $11,640.51 $11,677.53 +$35.64
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $72.87 160 $11,659.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:35am ET $72.52 160 $11,603.20 $11,621.53 $-56.00
(-0.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:55am ET $71.20 163 $11,605.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:20am ET $71.90 163 $11,719.68 $11,735.63 +$114.10
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,735.63
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,735.63
Total Return: +17.36%
Back to Professor Mean