Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:53:49

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

61
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
25.7/35
Total Return
16.0/25
Win Rate
8.8/15
Profit Factor
4.5/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality 62.3/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 61.3

30-Day Momentum

55
+3.5%
30d Return
83%
Win Rate
12
Trades
2.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 58.9 Conf: 0.93×
Cooling (-7 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$17,774.09
Current Value
$18,443.90
Period P&L
$669.79
Max Drawdown
-11.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.53

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
11 / 3
Best Trade
+1.09%
Worst Trade
-0.83%
Avg Trade Return
+0.27%
Avg Hold Time
4.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$507,333.08
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$669.79
Net P&L (after fees)
$669.79
Gross Return
+3.77%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.77%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $17,774.09 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 1:20pm ET $209.28 84 $17,579.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 2:05pm ET $209.87 84 $17,628.66 $17,823.24 +$49.13
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
45m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $211.41 84 $17,758.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:45am ET $213.05 84 $17,896.20 $17,960.58 +$137.34
(+0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
10m held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 2:50pm ET $217.59 82 $17,842.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 3:50pm ET $217.74 82 $17,854.68 $17,972.88 +$12.30
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $215.66 83 $17,899.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 10:40am ET $218.01 83 $18,095.24 $18,168.34 +$195.46
(+1.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 1:05pm ET $224.93 80 $17,994.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 2:20pm ET $225.19 80 $18,015.20 $18,189.20 +$20.86
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $228.60 79 $18,059.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $230.58 79 $18,215.82 $18,345.62 +$156.42
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.6h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 10:05am ET $228.09 80 $18,247.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 1:05pm ET $226.20 80 $18,096.01 $18,194.43 $-151.19
(-0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
3h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 2:50pm ET $223.85 81 $18,132.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 3:20pm ET $224.20 81 $18,160.20 $18,222.38 +$27.95
(+0.2%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 12:40pm ET $218.68 83 $18,150.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 1:20pm ET $219.37 83 $18,207.71 $18,279.65 +$57.27
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
40m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 3:35pm ET $211.82 86 $18,216.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $213.24 86 $18,339.07 $18,402.20 +$122.55
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.9h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:40pm ET $215.01 85 $18,275.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:05pm ET $216.05 85 $18,364.25 $18,490.60 +$88.40
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
25m held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $219.18 84 $18,411.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:45am ET $219.82 84 $18,464.46 $18,543.52 +$52.92
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 3:50pm ET $229.10 80 $18,328.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET $227.86 80 $18,228.80 $18,444.32 $-99.20
(-0.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $222.12 83 $18,435.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 11:45am ET $222.11 83 $18,435.13 $18,443.90 $-0.42
(-0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,443.90
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,443.90
Total Return: +84.44%
Back to Professor Mean