Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 01:31:42

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
15.8 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-19.1%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.9%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

9
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality 9.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 9.2

30-Day Momentum

53
+4.2%
30d Return
77%
Win Rate
13
Trades
2.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 55.5 Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+44 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,187.82
Current Value
$9,576.30
Period P&L
$388.52
Max Drawdown
-27.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.31

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
10 / 3
Best Trade
+3.05%
Worst Trade
-1.66%
Avg Trade Return
+0.33%
Avg Hold Time
3.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$244,345.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$388.52
Net P&L (after fees)
$388.52
Gross Return
+4.23%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.23%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ORCL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,187.82 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 3:20pm ET $143.52 64 $9,185.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $144.76 64 $9,264.64 $9,267.14 +$79.36
(+0.9%)
MEAN_REVERSION
35m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $149.35 62 $9,259.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:35am ET $148.44 62 $9,203.28 $9,210.72 $-56.42
(-0.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET $144.21 63 $9,085.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 11:45am ET $143.12 63 $9,016.56 $9,142.01 $-68.71
(-0.8%)
MEAN_REVERSION
2.2h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:45am ET $143.88 63 $9,064.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 12:35pm ET $144.65 63 $9,113.26 $9,190.83 +$48.82
(+0.5%)
MEAN_REVERSION
50m held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 3:50pm ET $154.37 59 $9,107.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $159.08 59 $9,385.72 $9,468.69 +$277.86
(+3.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
17.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:40pm ET $161.64 58 $9,375.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 3:45pm ET $162.14 58 $9,404.12 $9,497.69 +$29.00
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.1h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $157.75 60 $9,465.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 10:40am ET $158.88 60 $9,532.81 $9,565.50 +$67.81
(+0.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.2h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 12:10pm ET $152.35 62 $9,445.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 1:10pm ET $152.80 62 $9,473.59 $9,593.39 +$27.89
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:40am ET $142.49 67 $9,547.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 10:35am ET $142.66 67 $9,558.22 $9,604.45 +$11.06
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
55m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:35pm ET $143.11 67 $9,588.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:05pm ET $143.98 67 $9,646.66 $9,663.02 +$58.57
(+0.6%)
MEAN_REVERSION
30m held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 3:00pm ET $148.73 64 $9,518.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 3:20pm ET $149.24 64 $9,551.36 $9,695.98 +$32.96
(+0.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
20m held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 2:35pm ET $148.15 65 $9,629.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 2:50pm ET $148.78 65 $9,670.95 $9,737.50 +$41.52
(+0.4%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 3:40pm ET $149.34 65 $9,707.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:55am ET $146.86 65 $9,545.90 $9,576.30 $-161.20
(-1.7%)
MEAN_REVERSION
19.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,576.30
Net Profit/Loss: $-423.70
Total Return: -4.24%
Back to Professor Mean