Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:33:37

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
15.8 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-19.1%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.9%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

9
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality 9.3/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 8.9

30-Day Momentum

7
-0.5%
30d Return
60%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.4 Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,560
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,870.58
Current Value
$9,817.87
Period P&L
$-52.67
Max Drawdown
-27.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.14

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
3 / 2
Best Trade
+0.99%
Worst Trade
-1.31%
Avg Trade Return
-0.10%
Avg Hold Time
56m

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$97,566.58
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-52.67
Net P&L (after fees)
$-52.67
Gross Return
-0.53%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.53%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ORCL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Professor Mean had $9,870.58 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 2:45pm ET $149.77 65 $9,735.37
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 2:50pm ET $149.25 65 $9,701.25 $9,836.42 $-34.12
(-0.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET $146.86 66 $9,692.76
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 9:50am ET $148.32 66 $9,789.12 $9,932.78 +$96.36
(+1.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
15m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 1:00pm ET $144.30 68 $9,812.40
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 2:20pm ET $144.49 68 $9,825.32 $9,945.70 +$12.92
(+0.1%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:10am ET $141.28 70 $9,889.60
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 11:45am ET $139.43 70 $9,760.10 $9,816.20 $-129.50
(-1.3%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.6h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 2:10pm ET $144.47 67 $9,679.49
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 3:35pm ET $144.49 67 $9,681.16 $9,817.87 +$1.67
(+0.0%)
MEAN_REVERSION
1.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,817.87
Net Profit/Loss: $-182.13
Total Return: -1.82%
Back to Professor Mean